Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MHOMEUSDT rose 78% on 31 July 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 00:00 hour at 0.005089 and reached a highest trade of 0.00905 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 23:45.
What stood out at 23:45
- Order book tilt0.9893Tested: 0.98 or higher
- Order book lopsidedness0.9495Tested: 0.94 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.5154Tested: 0.51 or higher
23:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 6 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 5 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
About 0.2 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-30 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-07-21 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.98 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.98 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.94 or higher. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Liquidation bunching 0.51 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.51 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 23:45 UTC on 30 July, 15 minutes before the selected 00:00 start.
HOME only, 5 July to 3 August 2026 (UTC, ending 4 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every HOME minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 00:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
HOMEUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#f661d358 @ dataset 461da594, counted 5 Aug 2026 02:50 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 6 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 6 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 30 Jul 00:00 UTC · 7 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.72 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerVolatility rank 0.97 or higher1-hour price change 0.03 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.021 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7239 ≥ 0.72 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5356 ≥ 0.53 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9732 ≥ 0.97 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03048 ≥ 0.03 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02133 ≥ 0.021 4 hours before · 30 Jul 20:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.57 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.032 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5773 ≤ -0.57 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5154 ≥ 0.51 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03291 ≤ -0.032 1 hour before · 30 Jul 23:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.93 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.96 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.62 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9302 ≤ -0.93 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9616 ≥ 0.96 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.625 ≥ 0.62 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5154 ≥ 0.51 15 minutes before · 30 Jul 23:45 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.98 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.94 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherMinutes to funding 15 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9893 ≥ 0.98 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9495 ≥ 0.94 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5154 ≥ 0.51 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 1 minute before · 30 Jul 23:59 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.51 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.28 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5154 ≥ 0.51 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2755 ≤ 0.28
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 2 matches
1 minute before (23:59): liquidation bunching 0.51 or higher, minutes to funding 1 or lower, taker buy share (15m) 0.28 or lower.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.51 and Minutes to funding ≤ 1 and Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.28
1 match.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (23:00): order book tilt -0.93 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.96 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.93 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.96 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish
2 matches.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 00:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on HOME, 5 June to 4 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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