Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MMUBARAKUSDT rose 128% on 7 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 11:00 hour at 0.01313 and reached a highest trade of 0.02999 in the 01:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 10:00.
What stood out at 10:00
- Order book tilt-0.9651Tested: -0.96 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.5035Tested: 0.5 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9971Tested: 0.99 or higher
10:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 9 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 9 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 5 of the 9 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
About 0.3 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-07 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-07 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.96 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.96 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Volatility rank 0.99 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 10:00 UTC on 7 August, one hour before the selected 11:00 start.
MUBARAK only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every MUBARAK minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 11:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
MUBARAKUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#3e7629b8 @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 9 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 9 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 6 Aug 11:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Upper wick (15m) 0.71 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.23 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7143 ≥ 0.71 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5036 ≥ 0.5 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2262 ≤ 0.23 4 hours before · 7 Aug 07:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.7 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5035 ≥ 0.5 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7059 ≥ 0.7 1 hour before · 7 Aug 10:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.96 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9651 ≤ -0.96 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5035 ≥ 0.5 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9971 ≥ 0.99 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03275 ≥ 0.032 15 minutes before · 7 Aug 10:45 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7778 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5034 ≥ 0.5 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02524 ≥ 0.025 1 minute before · 7 Aug 10:59 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.75 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7778 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5034 ≥ 0.5 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7584 ≥ 0.75 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02554 ≥ 0.025
Two other reading times we tried 1 and 3 matches
1 minute before (10:59): upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, taker buy share (15m) 0.75 or higher.
Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.77 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.75
1 match.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (10:45): upper wick (15m) 0.77 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, distance from the day's average price 0.025 or higher.
Upper wick · 15m ≥ 0.77 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and VWAP distance · day ≥ 0.025
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 11:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on MUBARAK, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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