Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MONGUSDT rose 146% on 25 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 21:00 hour at 0.0931 and reached a highest trade of 0.2289 in the 22:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 20:00.
What stood out at 20:00
- Order book tilt0.6686Tested: 0.66 or higher
- Open interest change rank0.9477Tested: 0.94 or higher
- Volatility rank0.08456Tested: 0.085 or lower
20:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 1 of 1 were at or above the match price and 0 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 2 of 43,167 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.66 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.66 · feature.book_imbalance
- Open interest change rank 0.94 or higher. How unusual the change in open positions was, opening or closing, on a 0 to 1 scale.OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.oi_velocity_pctrank
- Volatility rank 0.085 or lower. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≤ 0.085 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 20:00 UTC on 25 August, one hour before the selected 21:00 start.
ONG only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,167 of those minutes.
Reference: every ONG minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 21:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ONGUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#eedd7b80 @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,167 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-13 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 2 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before · 25 Aug 20:00 UTC · 8 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.66 or higherEngulfing (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishOpen interest change rank 0.94 or higherVolatility rank 0.085 or lower15-minute price change -0.019 or lower1-hour price change -0.033 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.028 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6686 ≥ 0.66 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9477 ≥ 0.94 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.08456 ≤ 0.085 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01919 ≤ -0.019 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03342 ≤ -0.033 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02813 ≤ -0.028 15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 21:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on ONG, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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