Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MPHAUSDT rose 113% on 24 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 10:00 hour at 0.04744 and reached a highest trade of 0.1012 in the 22:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 09:00.
What stood out at 09:00
- Liquidation bunching0.5626Tested: 0.56 or higher
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested4Tested: 3 or higher
- Volatility rank0.9442Tested: 0.94 or higher
09:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any PHA minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
36 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 36 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.56 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
- Volatility rank 0.94 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.94 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 09:00 UTC on 24 September, one hour before the selected 10:00 start.
PHA only, 31 August to 29 September 2026 (UTC, ending 30 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every PHA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 10:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
PHAUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#d276dbc3 @ dataset a0160256, counted 30 Sep 2026 21:17 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 30 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 36 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 20 of the 36 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (56%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 7 of 36 complete windows (19.4%), against 5.6% with no condition (2,387 of 42,374): 3.45x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 5 of its 36 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 3 of 36 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 36.
About 1.2 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 30 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
2 rose and 4 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 24 hours before
Minutes like this appeared only 14 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 10 of the 14 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (71%).
10 rose and 4 fell over 14 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.5 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 36 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
When the matches happened13 of 30 days
- 9 Sep1 match
- 11 Sep2 matches
- 12 Sep1 match
- 13 Sep2 matches
- 15 Sep5 matches
- 16 Sep2 matches
- 17 Sep3 matches
- 19 Sep5 matches
- 21 Sep2 matches
- 23 Sep2 matches
- 24 Sep2 matches
- 25 Sep5 matches
- 29 Sep4 matches
No matches on the other 17 days.
Of the 36 matches, 26 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 5 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 36 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 36 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any PHA minute.
- 30 minutes
4 of 36 (11.1%) were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 1,931 of 42,374 (4.6%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
5 of 36 (13.9%) were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 3,306 of 42,345 (7.8%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
6 of 36 (16.7%) were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 6,248 of 42,159 (14.8%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
9 of 32 (28.1%) were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 11,505 of 41,009 (28.1%).
4 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
6 of 32 (18.8%) were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 6,977 of 38,228 (18.3%).
4 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 7 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
1 of 23 was 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 1,151 of 32,623 (3.5%).
13 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 7 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 7 of 36 complete windows (19.4%), against 5.6% with no condition (2,387 of 42,374): 3.45x.
At least 5 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 3 of 36 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 36.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 36 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 23 Sep 10:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
4-hour range against usual 0.5 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.011 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 0.4938 ≤ 0.5 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5582 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 138 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 94 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01105 ≤ -0.011 4 hours before · 24 Sep 06:00 UTC · 6 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.35 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5626 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 158 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 114 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3468 ≤ 0.35 1 hour before · 24 Sep 09:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.94 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.67 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5626 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 161 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 117 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9442 ≥ 0.94 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6721 ≥ 0.67 15 minutes before · 24 Sep 09:45 UTC · 6 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5626 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 161.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 117.8 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02003 ≥ 0.02 1 minute before · 24 Sep 09:59 UTC · 6 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.024 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5626 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 162 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 118 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02427 ≥ 0.024
Two other reading times we tried 6 and 14 matches
1 minute before (09:59): liquidation bunching 0.56 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.56 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 2 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
24 hours before (10:00): 4-hour range against usual 0.5 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.
Compression · 4h ≤ 0.5 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3
14 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 14, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 14.
Of the 14 matches, 12 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 36 matches came on 13 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 10:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 57 AI sector markets
- 518 sector crypto markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-30 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.