Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MPHAUSDT rose 152% on 21 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 07:00 hour at 0.04014 and reached a highest trade of 0.1012 in the 22:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:00.
What stood out at 03:00
- Order book lopsidedness0.04173Tested: 0.042 or lower
- Lower wick (15m)0.8537Tested: 0.85 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.657Tested: 0.65 or higher
03:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
2 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 2 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book lopsidedness 0.042 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.042 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Lower wick (15m) 0.85 or higher.Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.85 · feature.candle_lower_wick_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.65 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 4 hours before the move.
Read at 03:00 UTC on 21 September, four hours before the selected 07:00 start.
PHA only, 29 August to 27 September 2026 (UTC, ending 28 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every PHA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 07:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
PHAUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-28 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#ebbb1659 @ dataset 1ae64ce7, counted 28 Sep 2026 08:22 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 28 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
2 rose and 0 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-17 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 2 rose and 2 fell over the next 30 minutes (4 of the 4 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
2 rose and 2 fell over 4 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (75%).
3 rose and 1 fell over 4 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 2 matches came on 2 of 30 days.
When the matches happened2 of 30 days
- 17 Sep1 match
- 21 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 28 days.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 2 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 2 matches came on 2 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any PHA minute.
- 30 minutes
0 of 2 were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 1,719 of 42,129 (4.1%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
0 of 2 were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 2,923 of 42,113 (6.9%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
0 of 2 were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 5,930 of 41,921 (14.1%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
- 24 hours
0 of 2 were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 10,874 of 40,802 (26.7%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
- 72 hours
0 of 2 were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 6,530 of 38,007 (17.2%).
Every match has a 72-hour close.
- 7 days
0 of 1 were 2% or more lower; any PHA minute 1,134 of 32,444 (3.5%).
1 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 2 matches came on 2 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 20 Sep 07:00 UTC · 5 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.68 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6847 ≥ 0.68 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 63 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 19 12 to 720 4 hours before · 21 Sep 03:00 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.042 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.85 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.31 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04173 ≤ 0.042 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8537 ≥ 0.85 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.657 ≥ 0.65 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 83 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 39 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3088 ≤ 0.31 1 hour before · 21 Sep 06:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.65 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.02 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.031 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6528 ≥ 0.65 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 86 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 42 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02056 ≥ 0.02 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03188 ≥ 0.031 15 minutes before · 21 Sep 06:45 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.64 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change 0.022 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.041 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6495 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 86.75 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 42.75 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02286 ≥ 0.022 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.04175 ≥ 0.041 1 minute before · 21 Sep 06:59 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.64 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.011 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6495 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 86.98 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 42.98 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01112 ≤ -0.011 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03254 ≥ 0.032
Two other reading times we tried 4 and 4 matches
1 minute before (06:59): liquidation bunching 0.64 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.64 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 4, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 4.
Of the 4 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (06:00): liquidation bunching 0.65 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 4, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 4.
Of the 4 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 2 matches came on 2 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 07:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 57 AI sector markets
- 518 sector crypto markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-29 to 2026-09-28 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.