Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MQUSDT rose 218% on 26 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 20:00 hour at 0.01805 and reached a highest trade of 0.05741 in the 14:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 19:00.
What stood out at 19:00
- Order book lopsidedness0.0467Tested: 0.047 or lower
- 4-hour range against usual3.21Tested: 3.2 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.6612Tested: 0.66 or higher
19:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
18 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 18 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book lopsidedness 0.047 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.047 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- 4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higher. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 4h ≥ 3.2 · feature.candle_compression_4h
- Liquidation bunching 0.66 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.66 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 19:00 UTC on 26 September, one hour before the selected 20:00 start.
Q only, 31 August to 29 September 2026 (UTC, ending 30 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every Q minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 20:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
QUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#58aa6dfd @ dataset a0160256, counted 30 Sep 2026 21:17 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 30 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 18 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 9 rose and 9 fell over the next 30 minutes (18 of the 18 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
9 rose and 9 fell over 18 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-12 alone holds 44% of them: this is close to a single episode.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 3 of the 4 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (75%).
1 rose and 3 fell over 4 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-26 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 4 hours before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
1 rose and 0 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-26 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 4 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
When the matches happened4 of 30 days
- 31 Aug1 match
- 12 Sep8 matches
- 26 Sep7 matches
- 27 Sep2 matches
No matches on the other 26 days.
Of the 18 matches, 13 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 18 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 4 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any Q minute.
- 30 minutes
6 of 18 were 2% or more lower; any Q minute 1,909 of 42,782 (4.5%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
6 of 18 were 2% or more lower; any Q minute 3,085 of 42,750 (7.2%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
3 of 18 were 2% or more lower; any Q minute 6,941 of 42,569 (16.3%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
8 of 18 were 2% or more lower; any Q minute 15,065 of 41,372 (36.4%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
8 of 16 were 2% or more lower; any Q minute 14,093 of 38,517 (36.6%).
2 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
0 of 9 were 2% or more lower; any Q minute 12,794 of 32,815 (39.0%).
9 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 4 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 25 Sep 20:00 UTC · 10 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.92 or higherEngulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherThe short descending resistance line is active 4hThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is risingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreDistance from the day's average price -0.032 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9254 ≥ 0.92 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5939 ≥ 0.59 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.3097 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 89 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03238 ≤ -0.032 4 hours before · 26 Sep 16:00 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.99 or higher4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.76 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change 0.034 or higher1-hour price change 0.048 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.19 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9955 ≥ 0.99 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.21 ≥ 3.2 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.76 ≥ 0.76 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.03411 ≥ 0.034 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04828 ≥ 0.048 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.1931 ≥ 0.19 1 hour before · 26 Sep 19:00 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.047 or lower4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.66 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.13 or lower1-hour price change -0.14 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.38 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.0467 ≤ 0.047 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.21 ≥ 3.2 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6612 ≥ 0.66 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 12 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.1304 ≤ -0.13 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.1497 ≤ -0.14 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.3889 ≤ -0.38 15 minutes before · 26 Sep 19:45 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.2 or lower4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change -0.14 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.38 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.1925 ≤ 0.2 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.21 ≥ 3.2 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.654 ≥ 0.65 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 12.75 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.1492 ≤ -0.14 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.3887 ≤ -0.38 1 minute before · 26 Sep 19:59 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.2 or lower4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.64 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVPIN regime is elevatedDistance from the day's average price -0.37 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.1925 ≤ 0.2 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 3.21 ≥ 3.2 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6455 ≥ 0.64 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 12.98 12 to 720 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.3788 ≤ -0.37
Two other reading times we tried 4 and 1 matches
1 minute before (19:59): 15-minute range against usual 0.2 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higher, containment (15m) is inside.
Compression · 15m ≤ 0.2 and Compression · 4h ≥ 3.2 and Containment · 15m inside
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 4, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 4.
Of the 4 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
4 hours before (16:00): order book tilt 0.99 or higher, 4-hour range against usual 3.2 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.76 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.99 and Compression · 4h ≥ 3.2 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.76
1 match: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 1.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 4 of 30 days, 5 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 20:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 70 sector alpha markets
- 518 sector crypto markets
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.
Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-30 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.