Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MRAREUSDT rose 89% on 25 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 10:00 hour at 0.01317 and reached a highest trade of 0.02491 in the 14:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 09:00.
What stood out at 09:00
- Order book tilt0.6191Tested: 0.61 or higher
- 15-minute range against usual0.36Tested: 0.36 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.6117Tested: 0.61 or higher
09:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Less often than any RARE minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
55 matches in 43,201 minutes checked; 4 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 55 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.61 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.61 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.36 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.36 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.61 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.61 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 09:00 UTC on 25 September, one hour before the selected 10:00 start.
RARE only, 29 August to 27 September 2026 (UTC, ending 28 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every RARE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 10:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
RAREUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-28 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#377bccf2 @ dataset 1ae64ce7, counted 28 Sep 2026 08:22 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 28 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 55 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 30 of the 51 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (59%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 0 of 51 complete windows (0.0%), against 1.8% with no condition (726 of 40,978): 0.00x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 3 of its 51 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 0 of 51 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 51.
About 1.8 a day, on 25 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 28 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 4 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
1 rose and 2 fell over 3 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this are common here: 596 of the 43,201 minutes searched (1.4%), about 19 a day. What followed was close to a coin flip: 303 rose and 276 fell over the next 30 minutes (579 of the 596 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 6 of 579 complete windows (1.0%), against 1.8% with no condition (726 of 40,978): 0.58x.
About 19 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 55 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
When the matches happened25 of 30 days
- 29 Aug3 matches
- 30 Aug2 matches
- 31 Aug1 match
- 1 Sep4 matches
- 2 Sep1 match
- 3 Sep1 match
- 4 Sep1 match
- 6 Sep1 match
- 7 Sep1 match
- 8 Sep1 match
- 9 Sep4 matches
- 10 Sep3 matches
- 12 Sep3 matches
- 14 Sep1 match
- 15 Sep2 matches
- 16 Sep3 matches
- 17 Sep6 matches
- 19 Sep2 matches
- 20 Sep2 matches
- 21 Sep1 match
- 22 Sep2 matches
- 23 Sep3 matches
- 24 Sep2 matches
- 25 Sep4 matches
- 27 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 5 days.
Of the 55 matches, 51 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 55 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 55 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any RARE minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 51 (3.9%) were 2% or more lower; any RARE minute 657 of 40,978 (1.6%).
4 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
2 of 50 (4.0%) were 2% or more lower; any RARE minute 1,123 of 40,960 (2.7%).
5 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
5 of 49 (10.2%) were 2% or more lower; any RARE minute 3,275 of 40,787 (8.0%).
6 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
10 of 47 (21.3%) were 2% or more lower; any RARE minute 8,521 of 39,603 (21.5%).
8 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
15 of 46 (32.6%) were 2% or more lower; any RARE minute 10,567 of 36,789 (28.7%).
9 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
12 of 37 (32.4%) were 2% or more lower; any RARE minute 11,432 of 31,208 (36.6%).
18 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 0 of 51 complete windows (0.0%), against 1.8% with no condition (726 of 40,978): 0.00x.
Only 51 of the 55 matches have a 30-minute close, and at least 3 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 0 of 51 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 51.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 55 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 24 Sep 10:00 UTC · 10 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.069 or lower1-hour range against usual 2.1 or higherContainment (15m) is insideUpper wick (15m) 0.71 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.61 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06863 ≤ 0.069 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 2.157 ≥ 2.1 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7143 ≥ 0.71 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6117 ≥ 0.61 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.08852 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 73 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 40 12 to 720 4 hours before · 25 Sep 06:00 UTC · 7 of 88 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.075 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.61 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.7 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07411 ≤ 0.075 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6117 ≥ 0.61 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 93 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 60 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7063 ≥ 0.7 1 hour before · 25 Sep 09:00 UTC · 8 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.61 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.36 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.61 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.28 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6191 ≥ 0.61 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.36 ≤ 0.36 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6117 ≥ 0.61 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 96 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 63 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2748 ≤ 0.28 15 minutes before · 25 Sep 09:45 UTC · 6 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.58 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.61 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5821 ≤ -0.58 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6117 ≥ 0.61 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 96.75 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 63.75 12 to 720 1 minute before · 25 Sep 09:59 UTC · 5 of 88 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.61 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6117 ≥ 0.61 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 96.98 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 63.98 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 4 and 596 matches
1 minute before (09:59): liquidation bunching 0.61 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher, how long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.61 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 and how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720
4 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 3, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 3.
Of the 4 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (09:45): order book tilt -0.58 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.61 or higher, how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.58 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.61 and how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3
596 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 6 of 579 (1.0%), and 2% or more lower in 7 of 579 (1.2%).
Of the first 400 of 596 matches checked, 359 came before the rise began, 24 during it and 17 after it.
Rows with fewer than 30 results print counts only.
The saved study leads with 09:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 55 matches came on 25 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 10:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 608 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 518 sector crypto markets
- 11 sector nft markets
Each opens Review the test.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-29 to 2026-09-28 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.