Binance USDT-MSKRUSDT rose 243% on 29 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 17:00 hour at 0.01016 and reached a highest trade of 0.03486 in the 03:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 16:45.
What stood out at 16:45
- Order book tilt-0.9158Tested: -0.91 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.7712Tested: 0.77 or higher
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested4Tested: 3 or higher
16:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any SKR minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
35 matches in 43,141 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 35 of 43,141 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.91 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.91 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.77 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.77 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 16:45 UTC on 29 August, 15 minutes before the selected 17:00 start.
SKR only, 5 August to 3 September 2026 (UTC, ending 4 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,141 of those minutes.
Reference: every SKR minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 17:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SKRUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#964261e6 @ dataset ea3968f0, counted 5 Sep 2026 07:57 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 5 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 35 times in the 43,141 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 19 rose and 16 fell over the next 30 minutes (35 of the 35 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 24 hours this setup fell 2% or more in 4 of 34 complete windows (11.8%), against 31.8% with no condition (13,062 of 41,092): 0.37x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting.
Best point inside 24 hours reached +5% or more in 19 of 35 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 35.
About 1.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-29 alone holds 40% of them: this is close to a single episode.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,167 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
4 rose and 2 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-29 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 29 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 17 of the 29 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (59%).
17 rose and 12 fell over 29 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.9 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 4 of 30 days.
When the matches happened4 of 30 days
- 9 Aug11 matches
- 10 Aug5 matches
- 28 Aug5 matches
- 29 Aug14 matches
No matches on the other 26 days.
Of the 35 matches, 35 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 35 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 4 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any SKR minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 35 (5.7%) were 2% or more lower; any SKR minute 2,304 of 42,507 (5.4%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
3 of 35 (8.6%) were 2% or more lower; any SKR minute 3,521 of 42,478 (8.3%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
6 of 35 (17.1%) were 2% or more lower; any SKR minute 7,889 of 42,296 (18.7%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
- 24 hours
4 of 34 (11.8%) were 2% or more lower; any SKR minute 13,062 of 41,092 (31.8%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
- 72 hours
16 of 35 (45.7%) were 2% or more lower; any SKR minute 11,660 of 38,208 (30.5%).
Every match has a 72-hour close.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
14 of 14 were 2% or more lower; any SKR minute 10,597 of 32,498 (32.6%).
21 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 24 hours.
After 24 hours this setup fell 2% or more in 4 of 34 complete windows (11.8%), against 31.8% with no condition (13,062 of 41,092): 0.37x.
Only 34 of the 35 matches have a 24-hour close.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 24 hours, not the close):
Best point inside 24 hours reached +5% or more in 19 of 35 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 3 of 35.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 4 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 28 Aug 17:00 UTC · 7 of 58 stood out
4-hour range against usual 2.1 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.77 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.17 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 2.122 ≥ 2.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7713 ≥ 0.77 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 29 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 29 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.1796 ≤ -0.17 4 hours before · 29 Aug 13:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
15-minute range against usual 3.2 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.77 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.016 or higher1-hour price change 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 3.272 ≥ 3.2 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7756 ≥ 0.77 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 49 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 49 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01684 ≥ 0.016 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02516 ≥ 0.025 1 hour before · 29 Aug 16:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.84 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.77 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lower1-hour price change 0.023 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8419 ≤ -0.84 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.772 ≥ 0.77 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 52 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 52 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02307 ≥ 0.023 15 minutes before · 29 Aug 16:45 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.91 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.77 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.014 or higher1-hour price change 0.037 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.046 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9158 ≤ -0.91 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7712 ≥ 0.77 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 52.75 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 52.75 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01424 ≥ 0.014 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.0377 ≥ 0.037 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.04627 ≥ 0.046 1 minute before · 29 Aug 16:59 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.95 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.77 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.98 or higher15-minute price change -0.013 or lower1-hour price change 0.024 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.028 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9502 ≥ 0.95 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7712 ≥ 0.77 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 52.98 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 52.98 12 to 720 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9875 ≥ 0.98 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01304 ≤ -0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.0244 ≥ 0.024 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02865 ≥ 0.028
Two other reading times we tried 6 and 29 matches
1 minute before (16:59): order book tilt 0.95 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.77 or higher, open interest change rank 0.98 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.95 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.77 and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.98
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 6 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (16:00): order book tilt -0.84 or lower, containment (15m) is inside, liquidation bunching 0.77 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.84 and Containment · 15m inside and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.77
29 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 4 of 29, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 29.
Of the 29 matches, 29 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 16:45 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 35 matches came on 4 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 17:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 71 sector alpha markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on SKR, 6 July to 4 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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