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Binance USDT-MSYNUSDT rose 130% on 16 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market; all matches came within 30 days.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 02:00 hour at 0.0946 and reached a highest trade of 0.2179 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 01:59.
What stood out at 01:59
- Order book tilt-0.683Tested: -0.68 or lower
- Book capturenativeTested: is native
- 15-minute range against usual0.4383Tested: 0.44 or lower
01:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any SYN minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
90 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other markets?
No result for these markets has been measured; nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 90 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.68 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.68 · feature.book_imbalance
- Book capture is native.Book capture native · feature.book_source
- 15-minute range against usual 0.44 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.44 · feature.candle_compression_15m
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 01:59 UTC on 16 September, one minute before the selected 02:00 start.
SYN only, 24 August to 22 September 2026 (UTC, ending 23 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every SYN minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 02:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SYNUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-23 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#07253c4b @ dataset cb0cece4, counted 23 Sep 2026 22:43 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 23 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 90 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was more often higher: 52 of the 90 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (58%).
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 2 of 90 complete windows (2.2%), against 4.5% with no condition (1,958 of 43,075): 0.49x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 6 of 90 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 90.
About 2.9 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
These 30 days are in a row, so the matches are closer to one episode than a spread. It counts the single minute on 23 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-16 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 25 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 15 of the 25 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
15 rose and 10 fell over 25 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.8 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 90 matches came from 24 August to 22 September.
When the matches happened30 days in a row
- 24 Aug1 match
- 25 Aug2 matches
- 26 Aug1 match
- 27 Aug3 matches
- 28 Aug4 matches
- 29 Aug3 matches
- 30 Aug2 matches
- 31 Aug3 matches
- 1 Sep3 matches
- 2 Sep3 matches
- 3 Sep3 matches
- 4 Sep7 matches
- 5 Sep2 matches
- 6 Sep4 matches
- 7 Sep2 matches
- 8 Sep2 matches
- 9 Sep2 matches
- 10 Sep2 matches
- 11 Sep3 matches
- 12 Sep4 matches
- 13 Sep3 matches
- 14 Sep5 matches
- 15 Sep4 matches
- 16 Sep5 matches
- 17 Sep4 matches
- 18 Sep2 matches
- 19 Sep3 matches
- 20 Sep2 matches
- 21 Sep2 matches
- 22 Sep4 matches
Of the 90 matches, 69 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 21 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 90 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 90 matches came from 24 August to 22 September.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any SYN minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 90 (2.2%) were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 1,958 of 43,075 (4.5%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
5 of 90 (5.6%) were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 3,244 of 43,047 (7.5%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
14 of 90 (15.6%) were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 5,754 of 42,865 (13.4%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
28 of 86 (32.6%) were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 14,978 of 41,666 (35.9%).
4 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
39 of 82 (47.6%) were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 18,597 of 38,791 (47.9%).
8 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 10 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
39 of 68 (57.4%) were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 20,268 of 33,044 (61.3%).
22 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 21 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 30 minutes.
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 2 of 90 complete windows (2.2%), against 4.5% with no condition (1,958 of 43,075): 0.49x.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 30 minutes, not the close):
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 6 of 90 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 90.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 90 matches came from 24 August to 22 September.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 15 Sep 02:00 UTC · 10 of 88 stood out
Book capture is native15-minute range against usual 0.43 or lower4-hour range against usual 5 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherDepth capture is liveThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4211 ≤ 0.43 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 5.075 ≥ 5 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5074 ≥ 0.5 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.1754 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 635 12 to 720 4 hours before · 15 Sep 22:00 UTC · 14 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.75 or lowerBook capture is native1-hour range against usual 2 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.018 or higher1-hour price change 0.045 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.031 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7518 ≤ -0.75 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 2.079 ≥ 2 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.756 ≥ 2.7 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5145 ≥ 0.51 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 26 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 655 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.998 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01803 ≥ 0.018 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04568 ≥ 0.045 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03113 ≥ 0.031 1 hour before · 16 Sep 01:00 UTC · 12 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt 0.82 or higherBook capture is native15-minute range against usual 0.35 or lower4-hour range against usual 8.1 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change -0.036 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8255 ≥ 0.82 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3429 ≤ 0.35 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 8.103 ≥ 8.1 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5321 ≥ 0.53 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 29 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 658 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.036 ≤ -0.036 15 minutes before · 16 Sep 01:45 UTC · 9 of 88 stood out
Book capture is native15-minute range against usual 0.44 or lower4-hour range against usual 8.1 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4383 ≤ 0.44 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 8.103 ≥ 8.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5347 ≥ 0.53 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 29.75 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 658.8 12 to 720 1 minute before · 16 Sep 01:59 UTC · 11 of 88 stood out
Order book tilt -0.68 or lowerBook capture is native15-minute range against usual 0.44 or lower4-hour range against usual 8.1 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherDepth capture is liveHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours1-hour price change -0.023 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.683 ≤ -0.68 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4383 ≤ 0.44 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 8.103 ≥ 8.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.537 ≥ 0.53 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 29.98 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 659 12 to 720 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02378 ≤ -0.023
Two other reading times we tried 2 and 25 matches
15 minutes before (01:45): book capture is native, 15-minute range against usual 0.44 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 8.1 or higher.
Book capture native and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.44 and Compression · 4h ≥ 8.1
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (01:00): order book tilt 0.82 or higher, book capture is native, 15-minute range against usual 0.35 or lower.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.82 and Book capture native and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.35
25 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 25, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 25.
Of the 25 matches, 20 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 5 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 01:59 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all 90 matches came from 24 August to 22 September.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 02:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 539 eligible crypto markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
- 520 sector crypto markets
- 115 DeFi sector markets
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-23 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.