Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MTACUSDT rose 249% on 25 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 12:00 hour at 0.002341 and reached a highest trade of 0.008181 in the 08:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 11:45.
What stood out at 11:45
- Order book tilt-0.5347Tested: -0.53 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.7088Tested: 0.7 or higher
- The descending resistance lineactive_1dTested: is active 1d
11:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 25 of 49 were at or above the match price and 24 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 49 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.53 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.53 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.7 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.7 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- The descending resistance line is active 1d.feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d · feature.desc_resistance_active
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 11:45 UTC on 25 August, 15 minutes before the selected 12:00 start.
TAC only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every TAC minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 12:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
TACUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#bb7d7673 @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 49 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 25 rose and 24 fell over the next 30 minutes (49 of the 49 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1.6 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-24 alone holds 45% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 49 matches, 48 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 49 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before · 25 Aug 11:45 UTC · 7 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.53 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.7 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 1dThe support under the descending resistance is falling15-minute price change 0.011 or higher1-hour price change -0.067 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.038 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5347 ≤ -0.53 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.7088 ≥ 0.7 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d active_1d feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01168 ≥ 0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.06738 ≤ -0.067 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03815 ≤ -0.038 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 12:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on TAC, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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