Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MTSTUSDT rose 142% on 7 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 06:00 hour at 0.01098 and reached a highest trade of 0.02656 in the 10:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 05:00.
What stood out at 05:00
- Liquidation bunching0.5407Tested: 0.54 or higher
- Taker buy share (15m)0.7096Tested: 0.7 or higher
05:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted2 conditions · 227 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 14 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this are common here: 227 of the 43,201 minutes searched (0.5%), about 7.3 a day. What followed leaned up: 123 of the 223 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (55%).
About 7.3 a day, on 23 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 15 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 9 of the 13 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (69%).
About 0.5 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this are common here: 272 of the 43,201 minutes searched (0.6%), about 8.8 a day. What followed was close to a coin flip: 138 rose and 127 fell over the next 30 minutes (265 of the 272 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 8.8 a day, on 27 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Liquidation bunching 0.54 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.54 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Taker buy share (15m) 0.7 or higher.Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.7 · feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 05:00 UTC on 7 August, one hour before the selected 06:00 start.
TST only, 14 July to 12 August 2026 (UTC, ending 13 August 00:00); all 2 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every TST minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 06:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
TSTUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#b8b659dc @ dataset 1a5d8642, counted 14 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 227 matches, 222 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 3 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 227 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 6 Aug 06:00 UTC · 8 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.63 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.089 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.84 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher1-hour price change 0.031 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6315 ≥ 0.63 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.089 ≤ 0.089 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8462 ≥ 0.84 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5407 ≥ 0.54 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9954 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03128 ≥ 0.031 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03223 ≥ 0.032 4 hours before · 7 Aug 02:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.075 or lower15-minute range against usual 2 or higherContainment (15m) is outsideUpper wick (15m) 0.77 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.97 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07426 ≤ 0.075 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.079 ≥ 2 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7727 ≥ 0.77 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5408 ≥ 0.54 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9777 ≥ 0.97 1 hour before · 7 Aug 05:00 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.54 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.7 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5407 ≥ 0.54 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7096 ≥ 0.7 15 minutes before · 7 Aug 05:45 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.53 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.93 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.81 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5384 ≤ -0.53 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9364 ≥ 0.93 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5407 ≥ 0.54 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8167 ≥ 0.81 1 minute before · 7 Aug 05:59 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.85 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.84 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8509 ≤ -0.85 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5407 ≥ 0.54 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.8414 ≥ 0.84
Two other reading times we tried 15 and 272 matches
1 minute before (05:59): order book tilt -0.85 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.54 or higher, taker buy share (15m) 0.84 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.85 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.54 and Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.84
15 matches.
Of the 15 matches, 15 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
15 minutes before (05:45): order book tilt -0.53 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.93 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.54 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.53 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.93 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.54
272 matches.
Of the 272 matches, 238 came before the rise began, 23 during it and 11 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 05:00: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 06:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 2 conditions on TST, 14 June to 13 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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