Binance USDT-MVELVETUSDT rose 105% on 11 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 09:00 hour at 0.4326 and reached a highest trade of 0.8887 in the 11:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 08:59.
What stood out at 08:59
- Order book tilt0.6134Tested: 0.61 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.5094Tested: 0.5 or higher
- The descending resistance lineactive_1dTested: is active 1d
08:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 31 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 15 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 31 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned down: 21 of the 31 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (68%).
About 1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-10 alone holds 71% of them: this is close to a single episode.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 89 times in the 43,199 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 41 rose and 48 fell over the next 30 minutes (89 of the 89 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 2.9 a day, on 20 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 1,980 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-10 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt 0.61 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.61 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- The descending resistance line is active 1d.feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d · feature.desc_resistance_active
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 08:59 UTC on 11 August, one minute before the selected 09:00 start.
VELVET only, 15 July to 13 August 2026 (UTC, ending 14 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every VELVET minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 09:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
VELVETUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-14 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#8b301005 @ dataset de1f6756, counted 15 Aug 2026 02:45 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 31 matches, 30 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 31 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 10 Aug 09:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 1dThe support under the descending resistance is falling1-hour price change -0.02 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.66 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5067 ≥ 0.5 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d active_1d feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02018 ≤ -0.02 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6696 ≥ 0.66 4 hours before · 11 Aug 05:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.49 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 1dThe support under the descending resistance is fallingShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4874 ≤ 0.49 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.509 ≥ 0.5 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d active_1d feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling 1 hour before · 11 Aug 08:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 1dThe support under the descending resistance is fallingMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.29 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5094 ≥ 0.5 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d active_1d feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2854 ≤ 0.29 15 minutes before · 11 Aug 08:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.074 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 1dThe support under the descending resistance is fallingOpen interest change rank 0.97 or higher15-minute price change -0.014 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07314 ≤ 0.074 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5094 ≥ 0.5 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d active_1d feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9761 ≥ 0.97 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01418 ≤ -0.014 1 minute before · 11 Aug 08:59 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.61 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 1dThe support under the descending resistance is fallingShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6134 ≥ 0.61 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5094 ≥ 0.5 feature.desc_resistance_active feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d active_1d feature.desc_resistance_support feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling
Two other reading times we tried 89 and 1 matches
15 minutes before (08:45): order book lopsidedness 0.074 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, open interest change rank 0.97 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.074 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and OI velocity percentile ≥ 0.97
89 matches.
Of the 89 matches, 72 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 17 after it.
1 hour before (08:00): liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher, the descending resistance line is active 1d, the support under the descending resistance is falling.
Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 and feature.desc_resistance_active active_1d and feature.desc_resistance_support falling
1 match.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 08:59: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 09:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on VELVET, 15 June to 14 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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