Change market, time or detector
All times are UTC. Chart history only changes the display. Historical comparisons use the 30 days before the selected start and measure their own outcome horizon.
HOLOUSDT rose into Sep 22
+22%
22 historical matches for the proposed conditions. This is an exploratory investigation. The combined trendline, compression and microstructure hypothesis still needs validation.
Explore the move and its lead-up
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.
Explore historical state
Current-minute reads are free after sign-in. Pro and Research include historical-minute inspection and comparison with an hour earlier.
Past readings use stored inputs where available. Recent minutes may use the live buffer and are labelled unpinned. Missing minutes remain visible.
Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.
These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.
Selected time: 2026-09-16 19:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.
Follow positioning and flow through the move
Read 24 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
Historical access applies. Reads preserve each source revision; missing values stay unavailable. Contract OI, turnover and direct spot basis are not supplied by this table. Published premium is a different measure from direct basis.
No additional reads have run.
The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.
Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots
Geometry and microstructure, on the same clock
Read left to right: 24h → 4h → 1h → 15m → 1m before the selected start. These are five snapshots, not a continuous tape. Neutral readings stay visible; unavailable values are never zero.
Descending resistance
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time since resistance breakhours | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line spandays | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance touchescount | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Touches before resistance breakcount | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Line ATR contractionmultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line statelabel | none | none | none | none | none |
| Distance to broken resistancemultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Distance to resistancemultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Support shapelabel | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Candle compression
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinemultiple · Highlight: ≤ 0.5 or ≥ 2 | 2.771 | 2.009 | 2.453 | 2.201 | 2.201 |
| last four-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 1.185 | 1.889 | 1.335 | 1.335 | 1.335 |
| last one-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 3.084 | 1.733 | 1.338 | 1.338 | 1.338 |
Order book
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order-book imbalanceratio · Highlight: ≤ -0.5 or ≥ 0.5 | 0.4095 | -0.4104 | 0.9827 | 0.3481 | 0.9176 |
| book capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | native | native | native | native | native |
| cost of buying 100k from the bookbps | 193.2 | 220.8 | 341.4 | 229.2 | 195.7 |
| cost of selling 100k into the bookbps | 266.9 | 185.8 | 274.6 | 201.6 | 171.7 |
| depth capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | live | live | live | live | live |
| normalized spreadratio | 0.1405 | 0.1472 | 0.03707 | 0.1104 | 0.07384 |
| order-book imbalance rankpercentile · Highlight: ≤ 0.1 or ≥ 0.9 | 0.8464 | 0.1013 | 0.6973 | 0.3411 | 0.92 |
| quoted spread in basis pointsbps | 7.024 | 7.358 | 1.854 | 5.522 | 3.692 |
| sharpest pull of resting asks in the minuteratio | 0.02346 | 0.08864 | 0.1054 | 0.03974 | 0.08984 |
| sharpest pull of resting bids in the minuteratio | 0.1035 | 0.09075 | 0.103 | 0.1321 | 0.01152 |
| What takers paid to cross over 15 minutesbps | 16.75 | 13.75 | 19.19 | 12.54 | 8.709 |
Trade flow
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar volume over 15 minutesusd | 200400 | 61100 | 62170 | 80960 | 18900 |
| Flow toxicity against this market's own historypercentile | 0.8595 | 0.2769 | 0.1897 | 0.2637 | 0.2223 |
| Illiquidity against this market's own historypercentile | 0.07384 | 0.5954 | 0.551 | 0.5978 | 0.6739 |
| Informed-trading pressureratio | 0.4027 | 0.3368 | 0.311 | 0.3225 | 0.3147 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursratio | -0.105 | -0.06543 | -0.08124 | -0.06653 | -0.0479 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing hourratio | -0.07138 | -0.1125 | -0.08103 | -0.04406 | -0.02936 |
| Price impact per dollar tradedper_million_usd | 0.2885 | 0.3576 | 0.3758 | 0.3904 | 0.4193 |
| large-trade share of recent flowratio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| persistence of taker flow over the hourratio | 0.1207 | -0.02771 | -0.02634 | -0.03963 | -0.05353 |
| taker-buy share of recent flowratio · Highlight: ≤ 0.35 or ≥ 0.65 | 0.457 | 0.3433 | 0.3947 | 0.4119 | 0.3145 |
| VPIN regimelabel | normal | normal | normal | normal | normal |
| Turnover against its recent hoursratio | 2.707 | 0.6889 | 1.204 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Volume against this market's own historypercentile | 1 | 0.6194 | 0.6834 | 0.8015 | 0.2635 |
Funding and positioning
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding against this market's own settled historypercentile | 0.4309 | 0.397 | 0.3787 | 0.3787 | 0.3787 |
| Funding minus premium indexsigned_fraction | 0.00005 | 0.0003616 | -0.00000168 | 0.000302 | -0.00000168 |
| How much of the hour's volume became new positionssigned_fraction | -0.08077 | -0.05096 | -0.03538 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Minutes until funding settlesminutes | 300 | 60 | 360 | 315 | 301 |
| Premium index change over 1hsigned_fraction | 0.0002411 | -0.0003429 | 0.0004666 | -0.00009039 | 0 |
| Premium index rank over 30dpercentile | 0.5806 | 0.1243 | 0.5729 | 0.1222 | 0.5729 |
| Published premium indexsigned_fraction | 0 | -0.0003429 | 0 | -0.0003036 | 0 |
| funding raterate | 0.00005 | 0.00001877 | -0.00000168 | -0.00000168 | -0.00000168 |
| global long ratioratio | 0.41 | 0.3944 | 0.3962 | 0.3974 | 0.3974 |
| hourly change in open contractssigned_fraction | -0.01297 | -0.003261 | -0.002205 | 0.001011 | -0.0009424 |
| normalized funding rateratio | 0.01667 | 0.006257 | 0.00056 | 0.00056 | 0.00056 |
| open-interest velocity rankpercentile | 0.6112 | 0.9974 | 0.9503 | 0.8314 | 0.4608 |
| top-trader long ratioratio | 0.6296 | 0.6284 | 0.6253 | 0.6235 | 0.6224 |
| top-versus-crowd long skewratio_difference | 0.2196 | 0.234 | 0.2291 | 0.2261 | 0.225 |
Liquidations
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade clusteringratio · Highlight: ≥ 0.5 | 0.589 | 0.576 | 0.5723 | 0.5711 | 0.5707 |
| Liquidation intensityratio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liquidations in the trailing hourusd | 16550 | 4938 | 657.6 | 5806 | 8492 |
| Longs liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 16550 | 4938 | 657.6 | 5759 | 8445 |
| Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 47 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercent | 2.52 | 0.66 | 1.68 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent | 2.46 | 0.84 | 1.8 | 2.52 | 2.22 |
| distance up to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercent | 0.36 | 2.04 | 0.96 | 1.14 | 1.44 |
| distance up to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent | 2.28 | 4.62 | 4.74 | 3.06 | 3.36 |
| liquidation burst against this market's own historypercentile | 0.4586 | 1 | 0.4648 | 0.4652 | 0.4616 |
| Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onratio | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0.9838 | -0.9889 |
Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book readings describe the best quotes, not full-depth liquidity; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.
Highlighted readings and exact search conditions
Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.
- -24h2026-09-15 19:00 UTC
At 24 hours before the move, 14 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 2.7Compression · 1h ≥ 3Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.65Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullishSweep + reclaim · 1h bullishCascade clustering ≥ 0.58Depth capture livethe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance -0.5 to 0.5how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99Return · 1h ≤ -0.02VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.025Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.771 ≥ 2.7 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.084 ≥ 3 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6556 ≥ 0.65 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.589 ≥ 0.58 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr 0.1691 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 153 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9998 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02064 ≤ -0.02 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.0259 ≤ -0.025 - -4h2026-09-16 15:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 9 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 2Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.35VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.04Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.009 ≥ 2 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.576 ≥ 0.57 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 173 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9974 ≥ 0.99 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3433 ≤ 0.35 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04026 ≤ -0.04 - -1h2026-09-16 18:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 13 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.98Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 2.4Containment · 15m outsideLower wick · 15m ≥ 0.62Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullishSweep + reclaim · 1h bullishCascade clustering ≥ 0.57Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.95VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.043Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9827 ≥ 0.98 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.453 ≥ 2.4 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6238 ≥ 0.62 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5723 ≥ 0.57 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 176 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9503 ≥ 0.95 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.043 ≤ -0.043 - -15m2026-09-16 18:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 11 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 2.2Engulfing · 15m bearishLower wick · 15m ≥ 0.82Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullishCascade clustering ≥ 0.57Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.033Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.201 ≥ 2.2 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8205 ≥ 0.82 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5711 ≥ 0.57 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 176.8 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9958 ≥ 0.99 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03347 ≤ -0.033 - -1m2026-09-16 18:59 UTC
At 1 minute before the move, 14 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.91Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.92Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 2.2Engulfing · 15m bearishLower wick · 15m ≥ 0.82Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullishCascade clustering ≥ 0.57Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.98Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.32VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.035Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9176 ≥ 0.91 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.92 ≥ 0.92 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.201 ≥ 2.2 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.8205 ≥ 0.82 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5707 ≥ 0.57 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 177 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9807 ≥ 0.98 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3145 ≤ 0.32 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03599 ≤ -0.035
Historical comparison
Exact setup countedBook capture native and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.2 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · Read at 15 minutes before the move.These are the printed conditions only. The selected detector family does not change this automatically proposed combination. Edit it before testing the full recipe.
The selected move lasts 127 hours. This comparison measures 168 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.
Too few completed windows for a directional generalization.
| Outcome | Matching setup | Same-market reference | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished at least 2% higher | 3 / 14 (21.4%)8 unavailable | 6,388 / 32,976 (19.4%)10225 unavailable | Not reported |
| Finished at least 2% lower | 10 / 14 (71.4%)8 unavailable | 20,710 / 32,976 (62.8%)10225 unavailable | Not reported |
| Reached +5% at any point | 8 / 14 (57.1%)8 unavailable | 16,444 / 33,054 (49.7%)10147 unavailable | Not reported |
| Reached -5% at any point | 13 / 14 (92.9%)8 unavailable | 28,080 / 33,054 (85.0%)10147 unavailable | Not reported |
Reference: eligible minutes in the same market and scan period, without the proposed conditions. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.
Sector and volume lists are unavailable. Retry or explicitly choose another population.
Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-22 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
Choose the study population explicitly: This market only · All recorded crypto perpetuals
Watch the ignition replay Free replay covers the latest fully archived UTC day on 6 major markets. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches the whole recorded order book, which begins 15 May 2026. Earlier days are searchable but hold no book, so they cannot be replayed. Access is checked when you open a replay.
This move ran past the end of the record, so the counts below cover the lead-up and the covered part of the move. Later minutes become available only after successful extraction; check the displayed coverage timestamp.
Evidence and counting
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Of the 22 fires, 18 came before the move began and 4 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.7 a day, on 16 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Also counted
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.91 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.92 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.9813 matches, 7 rose, 6 fell
Read at 1 minute before the move.
7 rose and 6 fell over 13 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 13 fires, 12 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.4 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.98 and Book capture native and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.9519 matches, 10 rose, 9 fell
Read at 1 hour before the move.
10 rose and 9 fell over 19 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 19 fires, 15 came before the move began and 4 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.6 a day, on 14 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.