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All times are UTC. Chart history only changes the display. Historical comparisons use the 30 days before the selected start and measure their own outcome horizon.
MAVUSDT rose into Sep 20
+18%
237 historical matches for the proposed conditions. This is an exploratory investigation. The combined trendline, compression and microstructure hypothesis still needs validation.
Explore the move and its lead-up
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.
Explore historical state
Current-minute reads are free after sign-in. Pro and Research include historical-minute inspection and comparison with an hour earlier.
Past readings use stored inputs where available. Recent minutes may use the live buffer and are labelled unpinned. Missing minutes remain visible.
Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.
These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.
Selected time: 2026-09-16 18:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.
Follow positioning and flow through the move
Read 25 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
Historical access applies. Reads preserve each source revision; missing values stay unavailable. Contract OI, turnover and direct spot basis are not supplied by this table. Published premium is a different measure from direct basis.
No additional reads have run.
The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.
Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots
Geometry and microstructure, on the same clock
Read left to right: 24h → 4h → 1h → 15m → 1m before the selected start. These are five snapshots, not a continuous tape. Neutral readings stay visible; unavailable values are never zero.
Descending resistance
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time since resistance breakhours · Highlight: 12 to 720 (inclusive) | 250 | 270 | 273 | 273.8 | 274 |
| Resistance line spandays | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance touchescount | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Touches before resistance breakcount · Highlight: ≥ 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Line ATR contractionmultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line statelabel | none | none | none | none | none |
| Distance to broken resistancemultiple | 0.7116 | 1.174 | 1.397 | 1.487 | 1.422 |
| Distance to resistancemultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Support shapelabel | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Candle compression
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 0.8941 | 2.016 | 0.7855 | 1.209 | 1.209 |
| last four-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 1.3 | 0.5825 | 1.522 | 1.522 | 1.522 |
| last one-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 1.339 | 1.172 | 1.174 | 1.174 | 1.174 |
Order book
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order-book imbalanceratio | -0.443 | -0.9985 | 0.9692 | -0.1976 | 0.1921 |
| book capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | native | native | native | native | native |
| cost of buying 100k from the bookbps | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| cost of selling 100k into the bookbps | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| depth capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | live | live | live | live | live |
| normalized spreadratio | 0.1372 | 0.1014 | 0.1444 | 0.02076 | 0.1033 |
| order-book imbalance rankpercentile | 0.06065 | 0.9755 | 0.6685 | 0.1681 | 0.1491 |
| quoted spread in basis pointsbps | 6.858 | 5.072 | 7.22 | 1.038 | 5.166 |
| sharpest pull of resting asks in the minuteratio | 0 | 0.1734 | 0 | 0 | 0.067 |
| sharpest pull of resting bids in the minuteratio | 0.05139 | 0.05154 | 0 | 0.037 | 0.05159 |
| What takers paid to cross over 15 minutesbps | 6.583 | 4.785 | 6.5 | 6.151 | 11.67 |
Trade flow
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar volume over 15 minutesusd | 4402 | 7632 | 4433 | 8458 | 11710 |
| Flow toxicity against this market's own historypercentile | 0.8939 | 0.3838 | 0.965 | 0.9333 | 0.8988 |
| Illiquidity against this market's own historypercentile | 0.9399 | 0.615 | 0.4059 | 0.7997 | 0.6296 |
| Informed-trading pressureratio | 0.3372 | 0.2695 | 0.3219 | 0.3207 | 0.3163 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursratio | -0.01778 | -0.0993 | -0.2353 | -0.2474 | -0.2753 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing hourratio | -0.06091 | 0.1702 | -0.03883 | -0.2461 | -0.2444 |
| Price impact per dollar tradedper_million_usd | 2.501 | 1.376 | 1.036 | 1.54 | 1.319 |
| large-trade share of recent flowratio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| persistence of taker flow over the hourratio | 0.00146 | 0.06951 | 0.01136 | 0.134 | -0.1344 |
| taker-buy share of recent flowratio | 0.4611 | 0.7275 | 0.3447 | 0.3339 | 0.3664 |
| VPIN regimelabel | normal | normal | normal | normal | normal |
| Turnover against its recent hoursratio | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Volume against this market's own historypercentile | 0.3747 | 0.5769 | 0.3319 | 0.5157 | 0.6618 |
Funding and positioning
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding against this market's own settled historypercentile | 0.4715 | 0.4715 | 0.4121 | 0.4121 | 0.4121 |
| Funding minus premium indexsigned_fraction | 0.001291 | 0.002135 | 0.0002467 | 0.0007081 | 0.0005093 |
| How much of the hour's volume became new positionssigned_fraction | Unavailable | 0.08299 | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Minutes until funding settlesminutes | 360 | 120 | 420 | 375 | 361 |
| Premium index change over 1hsigned_fraction | -0.001191 | -0.001921 | -0.00006985 | -0.0006713 | -0.0002545 |
| Premium index rank over 30dpercentile | 0.05486 | 0.01319 | 0.241 | 0.1306 | 0.1778 |
| Published premium indexsigned_fraction | -0.001191 | -0.002035 | -0.0002099 | -0.0006713 | -0.0004725 |
| funding raterate | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.00003677 | 0.00003677 | 0.00003677 |
| global long ratioratio | 0.7559 | 0.7418 | 0.7401 | 0.7378 | 0.7382 |
| hourly change in open contractssigned_fraction | -0.001647 | 0.001281 | 0.006395 | -0.0002942 | -0.003202 |
| normalized funding rateratio | 0.03333 | 0.03333 | 0.01226 | 0.01226 | 0.01226 |
| open-interest velocity rankpercentile · Highlight: ≤ 0.1 or ≥ 0.9 | 0.8699 | 0.411 | 0.6756 | 0.2554 | 0.9999 |
| top-trader long ratioratio | 0.7442 | 0.7294 | 0.7306 | 0.7315 | 0.7325 |
| top-versus-crowd long skewratio_difference | -0.0117 | -0.0124 | -0.0095 | -0.0063 | -0.0057 |
Liquidations
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade clusteringratio · Highlight: ≥ 0.5 | 0.6037 | 0.604 | 0.6043 | 0.6043 | 0.6043 |
| Liquidation intensityratio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liquidations in the trailing hourusd | 14.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Longs liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 14.43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercent | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| distance down to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent | 2.58 | 2.46 | 0.84 | 0.18 | 1.5 |
| distance up to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercent | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| distance up to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| liquidation burst against this market's own historypercentile | 0.4966 | 0.4911 | 0.4854 | 0.4861 | 0.4862 |
| Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onratio | -1 | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book readings describe the best quotes, not full-depth liquidity; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.
Highlighted readings and exact search conditions
Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.
- -24h2026-09-15 18:00 UTC
At 24 hours before the move, 14 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.061Book capture nativeContainment · 15m insideUpper wick · 15m ≥ 0.87Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720the short descending resistance line active_4hhow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720the support under the short descending resistance risinghow many times price has touched the short descending resistance ≥ 3Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.93Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.06065 ≤ 0.061 Book capture feature.book_source native native Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.8772 ≥ 0.87 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6037 ≥ 0.6 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 250 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 255 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9312 ≥ 0.93 - -4h2026-09-16 14:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 16 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.99Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.97Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 2Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullishUpper wick · 15m ≥ 0.6Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720the short descending resistance line active_4hhow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720the support under the short descending resistance risinghow many times price has touched the short descending resistance ≥ 3Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.72Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9985 ≤ -0.99 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9755 ≥ 0.97 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.016 ≥ 2 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6094 ≥ 0.6 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.604 ≥ 0.6 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 270 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 275 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.7275 ≥ 0.72 - -1h2026-09-16 17:00 UTC
At 1 hour before the move, 12 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.96Book capture nativeCascade clustering ≥ 0.6Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720the short descending resistance line active_4hhow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720the support under the short descending resistance risinghow many times price has touched the short descending resistance ≥ 3Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.35Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9692 ≥ 0.96 Book capture feature.book_source native native Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6043 ≥ 0.6 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 273 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 278 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3447 ≤ 0.35 - -15m2026-09-16 17:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 12 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCascade clustering ≥ 0.6Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720the short descending resistance line active_4hhow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720the support under the short descending resistance risinghow many times price has touched the short descending resistance ≥ 3Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.34VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.021Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6043 ≥ 0.6 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 273.8 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 278.8 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3339 ≤ 0.34 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02193 ≤ -0.021 - -1m2026-09-16 17:59 UTC
At 1 minute before the move, 11 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCascade clustering ≥ 0.6Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720the short descending resistance line active_4hhow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720the support under the short descending resistance risinghow many times price has touched the short descending resistance ≥ 3OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6043 ≥ 0.6 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 274 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 279 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support rising rising how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 4 ≥ 3 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9999 ≥ 0.99
Historical comparison
Exact setup countedBook capture native and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.99 · Read at 1 minute before the move.These are the printed conditions only. The selected detector family does not change this automatically proposed combination. Edit it before testing the full recipe.
The selected move lasts 78 hours. This comparison measures 168 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.
Descriptive comparison; an edge has not been established.
| Outcome | Matching setup | Same-market reference | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished at least 2% higher | 73 / 177 (41.2%)60 unavailable | 12,431 / 31,766 (39.1%)11435 unavailable | +2.1 pp |
| Finished at least 2% lower | 61 / 177 (34.5%)60 unavailable | 11,118 / 31,766 (35.0%)11435 unavailable | -0.5 pp |
| Reached +5% at any point | 127 / 180 (70.6%)57 unavailable | 22,223 / 32,515 (68.3%)10686 unavailable | +2.2 pp |
| Reached -5% at any point | 118 / 180 (65.6%)57 unavailable | 21,526 / 32,515 (66.2%)10686 unavailable | -0.6 pp |
Reference: eligible minutes in the same market and scan period, without the proposed conditions. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_infrastructure. Choose one explicitly.
Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-22 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
Choose the study population explicitly: This market only · All recorded crypto perpetuals
Watch the ignition replay Free replay covers the latest fully archived UTC day on 6 major markets. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches the whole recorded order book, which begins 15 May 2026. Earlier days are searchable but hold no book, so they cannot be replayed. Access is checked when you open a replay.
Evidence and counting
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Of the 237 fires, 195 came before the move began and 25 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 7.6 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Also counted
Book capture native and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and Depth capture live0 matches
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
This exact combination appears nowhere else in the 30 days searched. The minute it was read from is the only one on record.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.96 and Book capture native and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6249 matches, 127 rose, 113 fell
Read at 1 hour before the move.
After 30 minutes this setup fell 2% or more in 0 of 240 complete windows (0.0%), against 0.2% with no condition (101 of 41,490): 0.00x.
Best point inside 30 minutes reached +5% or more in 1 of 244 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 0 of 244.
Of the 249 fires, 208 came before the move began and 25 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 8 a day, on 30 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.