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Change market, time or detector

All times are UTC. Chart history only changes the display. Historical comparisons use the 30 days before the selected start and measure their own outcome horizon.

Move read

PENGUSDT rose into Sep 18

+17%

Move window

Move window: 2026-09-15 16:00 to 2026-09-18 10:00 UTC.

66 hours. The automatic start is the last covered hourly candle touching the bottom 5% of the episode range (top 5% for a fall), measured using the eventual extreme. It is a hindsight anchor, not a detected causal onset. Change the start above to inspect a later acceleration. The end marks the hour containing the price extreme, not an exact tick.

Stored analytical feature coverage for PENGUSDT ends 2026-09-22 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Price candles can continue beyond it; feature availability and tick replay are separate.

The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.

23 historical matches for the proposed conditions. This is an exploratory investigation. The combined trendline, compression and microstructure hypothesis still needs validation.

> Full PENGUSDT research page

Explore the move and its lead-up

Price history: lead-up and selected move
selected startreadings taken here+17%45.657950.056154.8781Sep 14 23:00Sep 15 16:00Sep 18 14:00UTC · log price scale

Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.

Explore historical state

Current-minute reads are free after sign-in. Pro and Research include historical-minute inspection and comparison with an hour earlier.

Past readings use stored inputs where available. Recent minutes may use the live buffer and are labelled unpinned. Missing minutes remain visible.

Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.

These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.

Selected time: 2026-09-15 16:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.

Before the time above:

Follow positioning and flow through the move

Read 22 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.

Historical access applies. Reads preserve each source revision; missing values stay unavailable. Contract OI, turnover and direct spot basis are not supplied by this table. Published premium is a different measure from direct basis.

No additional reads have run.

The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.

Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots

Geometry and microstructure, on the same clock

Read left to right: 24h → 4h → 1h → 15m → 1m before the selected start. These are five snapshots, not a continuous tape. Neutral readings stay visible; unavailable values are never zero.

Descending resistance
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Time since resistance breakhoursUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Resistance line spandaysUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Resistance touchescountUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Touches before resistance breakcountUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Line ATR contractionmultipleUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Resistance line statelabelUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Distance to broken resistancemultipleUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Distance to resistancemultipleUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Support shapelabelUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Candle compression
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinemultiple0.49830.56171.1221.1041.104
last four-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple2.851.5331.5331.5331.533
last one-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple · Highlight: ≤ 0.5 or ≥ 21.2222.2213.633.633.63
Order book
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Order-book imbalanceratio-0.9530.25640.075-0.454-0.248
book capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normalnativenativenativenativenative
cost of buying 100k from the bookbps108.3251.5116.1104.9101
cost of selling 100k into the bookbps112.5245.2107.5109.2124.7
depth capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normallivelivelivelivelive
normalized spreadratio0.29450.25360.46850.25690.1719
order-book imbalance rankpercentile0.81320.18220.071120.41320.3064
quoted spread in basis pointsbps14.7312.6823.4312.858.597
sharpest pull of resting asks in the minuteratio0.28120.3210.27630.19140.4491
sharpest pull of resting bids in the minuteratio0.83140.024980.81560.29280.8474
What takers paid to cross over 15 minutesbps13.5614.6719.2611.9713.43
Trade flow
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Dollar volume over 15 minutesusd2443210.4531195322274
Flow toxicity against this market's own historypercentile0.92150.72320.78980.88170.8761
Illiquidity against this market's own historypercentile0.6797Unavailable0.32090.44150.3758
Informed-trading pressureratio0.43910.44420.4530.46280.4628
Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursratio0.05293-0.032660.05977-0.003416-0.005056
Net taker flow over the trailing hourratio0.039540.030760.04442-0.2997-0.3467
Price impact per dollar tradedper_million_usd2.569Unavailable1.5631.931.728
large-trade share of recent flowratio00000
persistence of taker flow over the hourratio0.02088Unavailable0.10280.04510.03244
taker-buy share of recent flowratio0.69360.45640.47050.10870.4414
VPIN regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normalnormalnormalelevatedelevatedelevated
Turnover against its recent hoursratioUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Volume against this market's own historypercentile0.33550.27210.47750.68790.3184
Funding and positioning
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Funding against this market's own settled historypercentileUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Funding minus premium indexsigned_fraction-0.00009229-0.00009229-0.00009229-0.00009229-0.00009229
How much of the hour's volume became new positionssigned_fractionUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Minutes until funding settlesminutes · Highlight: ≤ 30024060151
Premium index change over 1hsigned_fraction00.001999000
Premium index rank over 30dpercentile0.51740.52010.51940.51940.5194
Published premium indexsigned_fraction00000
funding raterate-0.00009229-0.00009229-0.00009229-0.00009229-0.00009229
global long ratioratio0.67780.67990.65710.65490.6637
hourly change in open contractssigned_fraction0.03477Unavailable-0.05981UnavailableUnavailable
normalized funding rateratio0.030760.030760.030760.030760.03076
open-interest velocity rankpercentile0.41140.33940.5420.95810.3928
top-trader long ratioratio0.47760.48060.4970.49870.4941
top-versus-crowd long skewratio_difference-0.2002-0.1993-0.1601-0.1562-0.1696
Liquidations
Reading-24h-4h-1h-15m-1m
Cascade clusteringratio · Highlight: ≥ 0.50.50450.50450.50450.50450.5045
Liquidation intensityratio00000
Liquidations in the trailing hourusd00000
Longs liquidated in the trailing hourusd00000
Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourusd00000
distance down to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercentUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
distance down to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent2.462.822.41.981.86
distance up to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercentUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
distance up to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent3.662.283.363.783.9
liquidation burst against this market's own historypercentile0.49610.49770.4980.4980.498
Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onratioUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable

Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book readings describe the best quotes, not full-depth liquidity; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.

Highlighted readings and exact search conditions

Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.

  1. -24h2026-09-14 16:00 UTC

    At 24 hours before the move, 14 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.95Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≤ 0.5Compression · 4h ≥ 2.8Containment · 15m insideLower wick · 15m ≥ 0.68Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullishCascade clustering ≥ 0.5Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Minutes to funding ≤ 1Taker buy share · 15m ≥ 0.69VWAP distance · day ≤ -0.022
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance-0.953≤ -0.95
    Book capture feature.book_sourcenativenative
    Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m0.4983≤ 0.5
    Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h2.85≥ 2.8
    Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15minsideinside
    Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m0.68≥ 0.68
    Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1hbullishbullish
    Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index0.5045≥ 0.5
    Depth capture feature.depth_sourcelivelive
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break16612 to 720
    Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding0≤ 1
    Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m0.6936≥ 0.69
    VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist-0.02241≤ -0.022
  2. -4h2026-09-15 12:00 UTC

    At 4 hours before the move, 6 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book capture nativeCompression · 1h ≥ 2.2Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book capture feature.book_sourcenativenative
    Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h2.221≥ 2.2
    Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index0.5045≥ 0.5
    Depth capture feature.depth_sourcelivelive
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break18612 to 720
  3. -1h2026-09-15 15:00 UTC

    At 1 hour before the move, 10 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.072Book capture nativeCompression · 1h ≥ 3.6Engulfing · 1h bearishSweep + reclaim · 1h bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.5Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720VPIN regime elevated
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank0.07112≤ 0.072
    Book capture feature.book_sourcenativenative
    Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h3.63≥ 3.6
    Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1hbearishbearish
    Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1hbearishbearish
    Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index0.5045≥ 0.5
    Depth capture feature.depth_sourcelivelive
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break18912 to 720
    VPIN regime feature.vpin_regimeelevatedelevated
  4. -15m2026-09-15 15:45 UTC

    At 15 minutes before the move, 14 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book capture nativeCompression · 1h ≥ 3.6Containment · 15m outsideEngulfing · 15m bearishEngulfing · 1h bearishSweep + reclaim · 1h bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.5Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Minutes to funding ≤ 15OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.95Taker buy share · 15m ≤ 0.11VPIN regime elevated
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book capture feature.book_sourcenativenative
    Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h3.63≥ 3.6
    Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15moutsideoutside
    Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15mbearishbearish
    Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1hbearishbearish
    Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1hbearishbearish
    Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index0.5045≥ 0.5
    Depth capture feature.depth_sourcelivelive
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break189.812 to 720
    Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding15≤ 15
    OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank0.9581≥ 0.95
    Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m0.1087≤ 0.11
    VPIN regime feature.vpin_regimeelevatedelevated
  5. -1m2026-09-15 15:59 UTC

    At 1 minute before the move, 12 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.

    Book capture nativeCompression · 1h ≥ 3.6Containment · 15m outsideEngulfing · 15m bearishEngulfing · 1h bearishSweep + reclaim · 1h bearishCascade clustering ≥ 0.5Depth capture livehow many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the short descending resistance broke 12 to 720Minutes to funding ≤ 1VPIN regime elevated
    Show the full readings
    READINGBEFORE THE MOVESEARCHES FOR
    Book capture feature.book_sourcenativenative
    Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h3.63≥ 3.6
    Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15moutsideoutside
    Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15mbearishbearish
    Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1hbearishbearish
    Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1hbearishbearish
    Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index0.5045≥ 0.5
    Depth capture feature.depth_sourcelivelive
    how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches3≥ 3
    how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break19012 to 720
    Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding1≤ 1
    VPIN regime feature.vpin_regimeelevatedelevated

Point the research surface at any past minute yourself PRO

Historical comparison

Exact setup countedBook imbalance percentile ≤ 0.072 and Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≥ 3.6 · Read at 1 hour before the move.These are the printed conditions only. The selected detector family does not change this automatically proposed combination. Edit it before testing the full recipe.

What the record says

The selected move lasts 66 hours. This comparison measures 72 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.

Too few completed windows for a directional generalization.

OutcomeMatching setupSame-market referenceDifference
Finished at least 2% higher5 / 11 (45.5%)12 unavailable2,371 / 6,147 (38.6%)37054 unavailableNot reported
Finished at least 2% lower5 / 11 (45.5%)12 unavailable2,261 / 6,147 (36.8%)37054 unavailableNot reported
Reached +5% at any point7 / 19 (36.8%)4 unavailable6,120 / 15,398 (39.7%)27803 unavailableNot reported
Reached -5% at any point7 / 19 (36.8%)4 unavailable5,736 / 15,398 (37.3%)27803 unavailableNot reported

Reference: eligible minutes in the same market and scan period, without the proposed conditions. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.

Does this setup hold across its sector?

Open the proposed study with starting defaults. Review the evidence, refine the idea, then save it or monitor it if useful.

What Research includes

Choose a recorded Binance crypto perpetual market with confirmed instrument classification.

Starting defaults and coverage

Starting defaults: 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-22 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.

Choose the study population explicitly: All recorded crypto perpetuals

Watch the ignition replay Free replay covers the latest fully archived UTC day on 6 major markets. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches the whole recorded order book, which begins 15 May 2026. Earlier days are searchable but hold no book, so they cannot be replayed. Access is checked when you open a replay.

Evidence and counting
feature.book_imbalance_pctrank + feature.book_source + feature.candle_compression_1h

Read at 1 hour before the move.

Of the 23 fires, 21 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.

About 0.7 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#467ca7ab @ dataset 85fdc316

This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.

Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.

Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.

If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.

Also counted

Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≥ 3.6 and Containment · 15m outside5 matches, 1 rose, 1 fell
feature.book_source + feature.candle_compression_1h + feature.candle_containment_15m

Read at 1 minute before the move.

1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.

Of the 5 fires, 5 came before the move began; none were during it.

About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#f76f1357 @ dataset 85fdc316
Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≥ 3.6 and OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.9510 matches, 2 rose, 3 fell
feature.book_source + feature.candle_compression_1h + feature.oi_velocity_pctrank

Read at 15 minutes before the move.

2 rose and 3 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.

Of the 10 fires, 8 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.

About 0.3 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.

q#4284b93d @ dataset 85fdc316

Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.

No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.