Change market, time or detector
All times are UTC. Chart history only changes the display. Historical comparisons use the 30 days before the selected start and measure their own outcome horizon.
RONINUSDT fell into Sep 15
−20%
69 historical matches for the proposed conditions. This is an exploratory investigation. The combined trendline, compression and microstructure hypothesis still needs validation.
Explore the move and its lead-up
Hourly candles. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start. These five samples test the lead-up only, not the full move. Use the minute inspector to explore during or after the move.
Explore historical state
Current-minute reads are free after sign-in. Pro and Research include historical-minute inspection and comparison with an hour earlier.
Past readings use stored inputs where available. Recent minutes may use the live buffer and are labelled unpinned. Missing minutes remain visible.
Read the available analytical inputs at one minute, including measurements over the preceding windows. Compare with an hour earlier, then take a reading into Research to test it. Dates are UTC.
These additional reads are separate from the five pre-start samples. Observations during or after the selected move describe what had already happened; they are not advance evidence.
Selected time: 2026-09-14 15:00 UTC. During the selected move: hindsight. Choose Read this minute to request it. Missing minutes remain unavailable.
Follow positioning and flow through the move
Read 17 sampled minutes from the selected start through one hour after the selected end. The peak hour has extra 15-minute samples. The end marks the peak hour, not the exact peak tick. These are separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
Historical access applies. Reads preserve each source revision; missing values stay unavailable. Contract OI, turnover and direct spot basis are not supplied by this table. Published premium is a different measure from direct basis.
No additional reads have run.
The OI score measures absolute USD-notional change, not signed contract growth. Zero 15-second liquidation intensity can coexist with substantial hourly liquidations. Binance liquidation amounts are observed publications, not complete venue totals.
Pre-start evidence: five separate snapshots
Geometry and microstructure, on the same clock
Read left to right: 24h → 4h → 1h → 15m → 1m before the selected start. These are five snapshots, not a continuous tape. Neutral readings stay visible; unavailable values are never zero.
Descending resistance
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time since resistance breakhours · Highlight: 12 to 720 (inclusive) | 558 | 578 | Read failed | 581.8 | 582 |
| Resistance line spandays | Unavailable | Unavailable | Read failed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance touchescount | Unavailable | Unavailable | Read failed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Touches before resistance breakcount · Highlight: ≥ 3 | 5 | 5 | Read failed | 5 | 5 |
| Line ATR contractionmultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Read failed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line statelabel | none | none | Read failed | none | none |
| Distance to broken resistancemultiple | -0.7073 | -0.6035 | Read failed | -1.102 | -1.25 |
| Distance to resistancemultiple | Unavailable | Unavailable | Read failed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Support shapelabel | Unavailable | Unavailable | Read failed | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Candle compression
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 4.562 | 0.8684 | Read failed | 0.6695 | 0.6695 |
| last four-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple | 0.8094 | 0.8422 | Read failed | 0.8498 | 0.8498 |
| last one-hour candle range versus its baselinemultiple · Highlight: ≤ 0.5 or ≥ 2 | 3.212 | 0.6895 | Read failed | 4.168 | 4.168 |
Order book
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order-book imbalanceratio | -0.3811 | -0.1172 | Read failed | -0.8901 | -0.03017 |
| book capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | native | native | Read failed | native | native |
| cost of buying 100k from the bookbps | Unavailable | Unavailable | Read failed | 412.7 | Unavailable |
| cost of selling 100k into the bookbps | 382.7 | 435.5 | Read failed | 189.2 | 349.5 |
| depth capture regimelabel · Highlight: State other than none or normal | live | live | Read failed | live | live |
| normalized spreadratio | 0.07254 | 0.03667 | Read failed | 0.0352 | 0.06955 |
| order-book imbalance rankpercentile | 0.4217 | 0.1198 | Read failed | 0.5903 | 0.5235 |
| quoted spread in basis pointsbps | 3.627 | 1.834 | Read failed | 1.76 | 3.478 |
| sharpest pull of resting asks in the minuteratio | 0.9442 | 0.02439 | Read failed | 0.01935 | 0.1143 |
| sharpest pull of resting bids in the minuteratio | 0.5169 | 0.04325 | Read failed | 0.08775 | 0.07543 |
| What takers paid to cross over 15 minutesbps | 25.56 | 6.387 | Read failed | 12.51 | 20.79 |
Trade flow
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar volume over 15 minutesusd | 264400 | 5042 | Read failed | 90580 | 148000 |
| Flow toxicity against this market's own historypercentile | 1 | 0.1136 | Read failed | 0.873 | 0.9546 |
| Illiquidity against this market's own historypercentile | 0.004108 | 1 | Read failed | 0.1383 | 0.1404 |
| Informed-trading pressureratio | 0.4418 | 0.3396 | Read failed | 0.4261 | 0.4488 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursratio | 0.05151 | 0.2027 | Read failed | 0.01726 | 0.02244 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing hourratio | 0.119 | -0.09988 | Read failed | -0.1152 | -0.0255 |
| Price impact per dollar tradedper_million_usd | 0.2301 | 1.996 | Read failed | 0.2476 | 0.2384 |
| large-trade share of recent flowratio | 0 | 0 | Read failed | 0 | 0 |
| persistence of taker flow over the hourratio | -0.001922 | -0.03877 | Read failed | -0.03874 | -0.003889 |
| taker-buy share of recent flowratio | 0.5087 | 0.4357 | Read failed | 0.4995 | 0.5589 |
| VPIN regimelabel | normal | normal | Read failed | normal | normal |
| Turnover against its recent hoursratio | 12.42 | 0.3496 | Read failed | 1.211 | 1.171 |
| Volume against this market's own historypercentile | 1 | 0.3023 | Read failed | 0.5278 | 0.6756 |
Funding and positioning
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding against this market's own settled historypercentile | 0.4614 | 0.4298 | Read failed | 0.4617 | 0.4617 |
| Funding minus premium indexsigned_fraction | 0.00005 | 0.00000129 | Read failed | 0.00005 | 0.00005 |
| How much of the hour's volume became new positionssigned_fraction | 0.1124 | -0.1117 | Read failed | -0.1712 | -0.1244 |
| Minutes until funding settlesminutes | 60 | 300 | Read failed | 75 | 61 |
| Premium index change over 1hsigned_fraction | 0 | 0 | Read failed | 0 | 0 |
| Premium index rank over 30dpercentile | 0.5437 | 0.5437 | Read failed | 0.5444 | 0.5444 |
| Published premium indexsigned_fraction | 0 | 0 | Read failed | 0 | 0 |
| funding raterate | 0.00005 | 0.00000129 | Read failed | 0.00005 | 0.00005 |
| global long ratioratio | 0.7532 | 0.7254 | Read failed | 0.6719 | 0.6768 |
| hourly change in open contractssigned_fraction | 0.03712 | -0.001515 | Read failed | -0.04161 | -0.03112 |
| normalized funding rateratio | 0.01667 | 0.00043 | Read failed | 0.01667 | 0.01667 |
| open-interest velocity rankpercentile | 0.9654 | 0.3875 | Read failed | 0.3963 | 0.7725 |
| top-trader long ratioratio | 0.6871 | 0.6675 | Read failed | 0.555 | 0.5568 |
| top-versus-crowd long skewratio_difference | -0.0661 | -0.0579 | Read failed | -0.1169 | -0.12 |
Liquidations
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade clusteringratio · Highlight: ≥ 0.5 | 0.6309 | 0.6304 | Read failed | 0.6298 | 0.6299 |
| Liquidation intensityratio | 0 | 0 | Read failed | 0 | 0 |
| Liquidations in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 63.95 | Read failed | 311.9 | 359.8 |
| Longs liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 63.95 | Read failed | 311.9 | 359.8 |
| Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourusd | 0 | 0 | Read failed | 0 | 0 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercent | 2.16 | 1.02 | Read failed | 0.42 | 0.9 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent | 4.2 | 3.06 | Read failed | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| distance up to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfpercent | 0.78 | 1.92 | Read failed | 2.1 | 1.92 |
| distance up to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfpercent | 0.9 | 1.98 | Read failed | 4.08 | 3.9 |
| liquidation burst against this market's own historypercentile | 0.4883 | 0.4924 | Read failed | 0.4642 | 0.4641 |
| Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onratio | Unavailable | -1 | Read failed | -1 | -1 |
Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book readings describe the best quotes, not full-depth liquidity; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.
Highlighted readings and exact search conditions
Highlighted readings meet fixed rules, not a statistical-significance test. The observed value and proposed search condition are different: a condition rounds a value or selects an interval for a repeatable search.
Could not read 1 hour before the move. The engine did not answer for those minutes, so nothing is claimed about them. Reload to try again.
- -24h2026-09-13 15:00 UTC
At 24 hours before the move, 12 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCompression · 15m ≥ 4.5Compression · 1h ≥ 3.2Cascade clustering ≥ 0.63Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3OI change magnitude score ≥ 0.96Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99Return · 1h ≥ 0.031VWAP distance · day ≥ 0.027Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 4.562 ≥ 4.5 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.212 ≥ 3.2 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6309 ≥ 0.63 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 558 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9654 ≥ 0.96 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03122 ≥ 0.031 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02775 ≥ 0.027 - -4h2026-09-14 11:00 UTC
At 4 hours before the move, 8 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeContainment · 15m outsideCascade clustering ≥ 0.63Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance -0.5 to 0.5how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6304 ≥ 0.63 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 578 12 to 720 the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr 0.03521 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 - -15m2026-09-14 14:45 UTC
At 15 minutes before the move, 10 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.89Book capture nativeCompression · 1h ≥ 4.1Cascade clustering ≥ 0.62Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3Return · 15m ≤ -0.011Return · 1h ≤ -0.037Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8901 ≤ -0.89 Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 4.168 ≥ 4.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6298 ≥ 0.62 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 581.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.012 ≤ -0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03728 ≤ -0.037 - -1m2026-09-14 14:59 UTC
At 1 minute before the move, 9 of the 87 readings met a highlight rule.
Book capture nativeCompression · 1h ≥ 4.1Cascade clustering ≥ 0.62Depth capture livehow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3how long ago the descending resistance broke 12 to 720how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3Return · 15m ≥ 0.01Return · 1h ≤ -0.023Show the full readings
READING BEFORE THE MOVE SEARCHES FOR Book capture feature.book_source native native Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 4.168 ≥ 4.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6299 ≥ 0.62 Depth capture feature.depth_source live live how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 582 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01054 ≥ 0.01 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02377 ≤ -0.023
Historical comparison
Exact setup countedBook capture native and Containment · 15m outside and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.63 · Read at 4 hours before the move.These are the printed conditions only. The selected detector family does not change this automatically proposed combination. Edit it before testing the full recipe.
The selected move lasts 24 hours. This comparison measures 24 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.
Descriptive comparison; an edge has not been established.
| Outcome | Matching setup | Same-market reference | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished at least 2% higher | 39 / 64 (60.9%)5 unavailable | 13,344 / 40,949 (32.6%)2252 unavailable | +28.4 pp |
| Finished at least 2% lower | 13 / 64 (20.3%)5 unavailable | 11,188 / 40,949 (27.3%)2252 unavailable | -7.0 pp |
| Reached +5% at any point | 35 / 64 (54.7%)5 unavailable | 8,562 / 41,349 (20.7%)1852 unavailable | +34.0 pp |
| Reached -5% at any point | 11 / 64 (17.2%)5 unavailable | 8,713 / 41,349 (21.1%)1852 unavailable | -3.9 pp |
Reference: eligible minutes in the same market and scan period, without the proposed conditions. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_gaming. Choose one explicitly.
Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-22 to 2026-09-21 UTC; finishes down 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
Choose the study population explicitly: This market only · All recorded crypto perpetuals
Watch the ignition replay Free replay covers the latest fully archived UTC day on 6 major markets. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches the whole recorded order book, which begins 15 May 2026. Earlier days are searchable but hold no book, so they cannot be replayed. Access is checked when you open a replay.
Evidence and counting
Read at 4 hours before the move.
Of the 69 fires, 27 came before the move began and 7 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 2.2 a day, on 11 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Also counted
Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≥ 4.1 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.623 matches, 2 rose, 1 fell
Read at 1 minute before the move.
2 rose and 1 fell over 3 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 3 fires, 2 came before the move began and 1 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.89 and Book capture native and Compression · 1h ≥ 4.17 matches, 4 rose, 3 fell
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
4 rose and 3 fell over 7 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 7 fires, 5 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Every night the record counts what fired and what usually followed: the daily brief.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.