Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 102% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 17:00 hour at 0.01077 and reached a highest trade of 0.0218 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 16:00.
What stood out at 16:00
- Order book lopsidedness0.05041Tested: 0.051 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.4877Tested: 0.49 or lower
- Engulfing (15m)bearishTested: is bearish
16:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 2 of 5 were at or above the match price and 3 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 5 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book lopsidedness 0.051 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.051 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- 15-minute range against usual 0.49 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.49 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Engulfing (15m) is bearish.Engulfing · 15m bearish · feature.candle_engulfing_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 16:00 UTC on 26 August, one hour before the selected 17:00 start.
4 only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 17:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#c0738c1c @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (60%).
About 0.2 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 5 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 5 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before · 26 Aug 16:00 UTC · 7 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.051 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.49 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.24 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.023 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.05041 ≤ 0.051 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4877 ≤ 0.49 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5303 ≥ 0.53 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2341 ≤ 0.24 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02322 ≤ -0.023 15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 17:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on 4, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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