Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 123% on 4 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 16:00 hour at 0.01602 and reached a highest trade of 0.03576 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 15:00.
What stood out at 15:00
- Order book tilt0.6686Tested: 0.66 or higher
- 1-hour range against usual2.851Tested: 2.8 or higher
- Volatility rank0.997Tested: 0.99 or higher
15:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
12 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 12 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.66 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.66 · feature.book_imbalance
- 1-hour range against usual 2.8 or higher. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 2.8 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- Volatility rank 0.99 or higher. How volatile the last hour was against this market's history, on a 0 to 1 scale.Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.99 · feature.realized_vol_pctrank
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 15:00 UTC on 4 September, one hour before the selected 16:00 start.
4 only, 12 August to 10 September 2026 (UTC, ending 11 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 16:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-11 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#1e5d5eb2 @ dataset d31fb5af, counted 12 Sep 2026 08:01 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 12 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 12 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 8 of the 12 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
8 rose and 4 fell over 12 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.4 a day, on 9 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 11 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 3 rose and 3 fell over the next 30 minutes (6 of the 6 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
3 rose and 3 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
4 rose and 2 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 12 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened9 of 30 days
- 14 Aug1 match
- 16 Aug1 match
- 17 Aug1 match
- 22 Aug2 matches
- 26 Aug1 match
- 28 Aug1 match
- 29 Aug2 matches
- 4 Sep2 matches
- 9 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 21 days.
Of the 12 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 12 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 12 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any 4 minute.
- 30 minutes
0 of 12 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 3,403 of 43,149 (7.9%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
1 of 12 was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 5,252 of 43,119 (12.2%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
5 of 12 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 11,357 of 42,939 (26.4%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
5 of 12 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 16,512 of 41,739 (39.6%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
4 of 11 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 12,326 of 38,860 (31.7%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
2 of 9 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 3,226 of 33,107 (9.7%).
3 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 2 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 12 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 3 Sep 16:00 UTC · 8 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.84 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.56 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.028 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8467 ≥ 0.84 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5682 ≥ 0.56 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 163 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 163 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02873 ≥ 0.028 4 hours before · 4 Sep 12:00 UTC · 8 of 63 stood out
Liquidation bunching 0.54 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.012 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.25 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.042 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5461 ≥ 0.54 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 183 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 183 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.0125 ≤ -0.012 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2402 ≤ 0.25 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.04208 ≤ -0.042 1 hour before · 4 Sep 15:00 UTC · 13 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.66 or higher1-hour range against usual 2.8 or higherEngulfing (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.015 or higher1-hour price change -0.029 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.025 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6686 ≥ 0.66 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.851 ≥ 2.8 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5409 ≥ 0.54 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 186 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 186 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.997 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01578 ≥ 0.015 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02923 ≤ -0.029 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02587 ≤ -0.025 15 minutes before · 4 Sep 15:45 UTC · 13 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.64 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.5 or lower1-hour range against usual 2.8 or higherContainment (15m) is insideSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 15 or lower15-minute price change -0.015 or lower1-hour price change 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6469 ≥ 0.64 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4975 ≤ 0.5 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.851 ≥ 2.8 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5408 ≥ 0.54 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 186.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 186.8 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.01503 ≤ -0.015 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02582 ≥ 0.025 1 minute before · 4 Sep 15:59 UTC · 13 of 63 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.08 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.5 or lower1-hour range against usual 2.8 or higherContainment (15m) is insideSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change 0.018 or higher1-hour price change 0.033 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07906 ≤ 0.08 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4975 ≤ 0.5 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.851 ≥ 2.8 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5408 ≥ 0.54 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 187 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 187 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01888 ≥ 0.018 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03328 ≥ 0.033
Two other reading times we tried 6 and 6 matches
1 minute before (15:59): order book lopsidedness 0.08 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 0.5 or lower, 1-hour range against usual 2.8 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.08 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.5 and the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 2.8
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (15:45): order book tilt 0.64 or higher, 15-minute range against usual 0.5 or lower, 1-hour range against usual 2.8 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.64 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.5 and the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≥ 2.8
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 12 matches came on 9 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 16:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-11 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.