Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 158% on 2 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 14:00 hour at 0.01389 and reached a highest trade of 0.03576 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 13:00.
What stood out at 13:00
- Order book tilt0.9223Tested: 0.92 or higher
- 1-hour range against usual0.4747Tested: 0.48 or lower
- Containment (15m)outsideTested: is outside
13:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
18 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on more dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 18 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.92 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.92 · feature.book_imbalance
- 1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lower. The last finished 1-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.48 · feature.candle_compression_1h
- Containment (15m) is outside.Containment · 15m outside · feature.candle_containment_15m
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 13:00 UTC on 2 September, one hour before the selected 14:00 start.
4 only, 8 August to 6 September 2026 (UTC, ending 7 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 14:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#2edc08a8 @ dataset c5654b7b, counted 7 Sep 2026 08:34 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 7 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 18 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 14 of the 18 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (78%).
14 rose and 4 fell over 18 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day, on 14 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 7 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
2 rose and 0 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-30 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 4 hours before
Minutes like this appeared only 1 time in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
1 rose and 0 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-02 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 14 of 30 days.
When the matches happened14 of 30 days
- 12 Aug1 match
- 14 Aug1 match
- 15 Aug1 match
- 16 Aug1 match
- 17 Aug1 match
- 18 Aug1 match
- 19 Aug1 match
- 20 Aug2 matches
- 22 Aug2 matches
- 23 Aug2 matches
- 28 Aug2 matches
- 30 Aug1 match
- 2 Sep1 match
- 6 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 16 days.
Of the 18 matches, 17 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 18 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 14 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any 4 minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 18 was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 3,241 of 43,149 (7.5%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
1 of 18 was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 4,980 of 43,119 (11.5%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
1 of 18 was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 10,887 of 42,939 (25.4%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
- 24 hours
1 of 17 was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 14,988 of 41,739 (35.9%).
1 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
- 72 hours
3 of 17 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 13,064 of 38,859 (33.6%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
0 of 16 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 8,507 of 33,100 (25.7%).
2 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 14 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 1 Sep 14:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.93 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.31 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.023 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9363 ≤ -0.93 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3044 ≤ 0.31 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.59 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 113 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 113 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0234 ≥ 0.023 4 hours before · 2 Sep 10:00 UTC · 12 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.86 or higherLower wick (15m) 0.92 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.02 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.8625 ≥ 0.86 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.9209 ≥ 0.92 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5825 ≥ 0.58 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.2334 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 133 12 to 720 the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.4073 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 133 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02028 ≤ -0.02 1 hour before · 2 Sep 13:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.92 or higher1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideUpper wick (15m) 0.6 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9223 ≥ 0.92 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4747 ≤ 0.48 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6009 ≥ 0.6 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5817 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 136 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 136 12 to 720 15 minutes before · 2 Sep 13:45 UTC · 7 of 58 stood out
1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.79 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4747 ≤ 0.48 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.7925 ≥ 0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5817 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 136.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 136.8 12 to 720 1 minute before · 2 Sep 13:59 UTC · 7 of 58 stood out
1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.79 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 0.4747 ≤ 0.48 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.7925 ≥ 0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5817 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 137 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 137 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 2 and 1 matches
1 minute before (13:59): 1-hour range against usual 0.48 or lower, lower wick (15m) 0.79 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher.
the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.48 and Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.79 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 2, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 2.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
4 hours before (10:00): order book tilt 0.86 or higher, lower wick (15m) 0.92 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.86 and Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.92 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish
1 match: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 1.
Of the 1 match, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 18 matches came on 14 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 14:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 71 sector alpha markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on 4, 9 July to 7 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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