Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 82% on 29 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 04:00 hour at 0.01198 and reached a highest trade of 0.0218 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:00.
What stood out at 03:00
- Order book tilt-0.7063Tested: -0.7 or lower
- Sweep + reclaim (15m)bearishTested: is bearish
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bearishTested: is bearish
03:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
20 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on more dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 20 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.7 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.7 · feature.book_imbalance
- Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bearish.Sweep + reclaim · 15m bearish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 03:00 UTC on 29 August, one hour before the selected 04:00 start.
4 only, 5 August to 3 September 2026 (UTC, ending 4 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 04:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-04 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#2cf130cb @ dataset ea3968f0, counted 5 Sep 2026 07:57 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 5 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 20 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 14 of the 20 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (70%).
6 rose and 14 fell over 20 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day, on 13 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 4 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (67%).
1 rose and 2 fell over 3 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 5 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 3 of the 5 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
3 rose and 2 fell over 5 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-23 alone holds 40% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
When the matches happened13 of 30 days
- 5 Aug2 matches
- 6 Aug2 matches
- 7 Aug1 match
- 8 Aug4 matches
- 9 Aug2 matches
- 12 Aug1 match
- 13 Aug1 match
- 19 Aug1 match
- 23 Aug1 match
- 25 Aug2 matches
- 27 Aug1 match
- 29 Aug1 match
- 2 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 17 days.
Of the 20 matches, 19 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 20 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any 4 minute.
- 30 minutes
1 of 20 was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 2,582 of 43,149 (6.0%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
- 1 hour
3 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 4,161 of 43,119 (9.7%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
- 4 hours
8 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 10,247 of 42,939 (23.9%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
- 24 hours
6 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 14,311 of 41,739 (34.3%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
- 72 hours
6 of 19 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 13,064 of 38,859 (33.6%).
1 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
10 of 18 were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 10,227 of 33,100 (30.9%).
2 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 28 Aug 04:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
4-hour range against usual 2.9 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or more15-minute price change 0.032 or higher1-hour price change 0.053 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 2.981 ≥ 2.9 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5329 ≥ 0.53 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.09971 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.2174 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.03254 ≥ 0.032 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.05302 ≥ 0.053 4 hours before · 29 Aug 00:00 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.58 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.32 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.061 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5855 ≤ -0.58 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5505 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 27 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 27 12 to 720 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3153 ≤ 0.32 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.0619 ≤ -0.061 1 hour before · 29 Aug 03:00 UTC · 9 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.7 or lowerSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.8 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7063 ≤ -0.7 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.8024 ≥ 0.8 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5511 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 30 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 30 12 to 720 15 minutes before · 29 Aug 03:45 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.61 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6187 ≥ 0.61 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5511 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 30.75 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 30.75 12 to 720 1 minute before · 29 Aug 03:59 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullishSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.32 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bullish bullish Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5511 ≥ 0.55 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 30.98 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 30.98 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3196 ≤ 0.32
Two other reading times we tried 3 and 5 matches
1 minute before (03:59): sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher.
Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55
3 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 3, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 3.
Of the 3 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
15 minutes before (03:45): order book tilt 0.61 or higher, sweep + reclaim (15m) is bullish, sweep + reclaim (1h) is bearish.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.61 and Sweep + reclaim · 15m bullish and Sweep + reclaim · 1h bearish
5 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 5, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 5.
Of the 5 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 13 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 04:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 71 sector alpha markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on 4, 6 July to 4 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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