Binance USDT-MARBUSDT rose 40% on 31 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 13:00 hour at 0.08568 and reached a highest trade of 0.1201 in the 01:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 12:00.
What stood out at 12:00
- Containment (15m)insideTested: is inside
- Liquidation bunching0.5022Tested: 0.5 or higher
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested5Tested: 3 or higher
12:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
About as often as any ARB minute
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
183 matches in 26,702 minutes checked; 1 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 183 of 26,702 minutes · saved text
- Containment (15m) is inside.Containment · 15m inside · feature.candle_containment_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higher.how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested ≥ 3 · feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 12:00 UTC on 31 August, one hour before the selected 13:00 start.
ARB only, 7 August to 5 September 2026 (UTC, ending 6 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 26,702 of those minutes.
Reference: every ARB minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 13:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
ARBUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-06 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#bf6a2745 @ dataset efb3e60c, counted 6 Sep 2026 07:59 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 6 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this are common here: 183 of the 26,702 minutes searched (0.7%), about 5.9 a day. What followed was close to a coin flip: 87 rose and 95 fell over the next 30 minutes (182 of the 183 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 9 of 182 complete windows (4.9%), against 3.1% with no condition (1,333 of 43,141): 1.60x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 5 of its 182 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 6 of 182 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 1 of 182.
About 5.9 a day, on 21 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 34 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was more often higher: 20 of the 34 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (59%).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 3 of 34 complete windows (8.8%), against 2.3% with no condition (1,001 of 43,171): 3.81x.
About 1.1 a day, on 18 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared 34 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 18 rose and 16 fell over the next 30 minutes (34 of the 34 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 2 of 34 complete windows (5.9%), against 2.3% with no condition (1,001 of 43,171): 2.54x.
About 1.1 a day, on 22 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 183 matches came on 21 of 31 days, 5 during the rise.
When the matches happened21 of 31 days
- 7 Aug10 matches
- 8 Aug1 match
- 19 Aug3 matches
- 20 Aug12 matches
- 21 Aug8 matches
- 22 Aug11 matches
- 23 Aug9 matches
- 24 Aug8 matches
- 25 Aug11 matches
- 26 Aug12 matches
- 27 Aug12 matches
- 28 Aug11 matches
- 29 Aug6 matches
- 30 Aug11 matches
- 31 Aug11 matches
- 1 Sep5 matches
- 2 Sep12 matches
- 3 Sep9 matches
- 4 Sep10 matches
- 5 Sep10 matches
- 6 Sep1 match
No matches on the other 10 days.
Of the 183 matches, 132 came before the rise began, 5 during it and 46 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 183 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 183 matches came on 21 of 31 days, 5 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any ARB minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 182 (1.1%) were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 578 of 43,171 (1.3%).
1 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
9 of 182 (4.9%) were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 1,333 of 43,141 (3.1%).
1 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
25 of 181 (13.8%) were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 4,223 of 42,961 (9.8%).
2 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
47 of 172 (27.3%) were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 10,023 of 41,761 (24.0%).
11 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 5 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
64 of 153 (41.8%) were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 14,016 of 38,881 (36.0%).
30 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 22 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
44 of 114 (38.6%) were 2% or more lower; any ARB minute 13,029 of 33,121 (39.3%).
69 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 52 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 1 hour.
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 9 of 182 complete windows (4.9%), against 3.1% with no condition (1,333 of 43,141): 1.60x.
Only 182 of the 183 matches have a 1-hour close, and at least 5 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 1 hour, not the close):
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 6 of 182 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 1 of 182.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 183 matches came on 21 of 31 days, 5 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 30 Aug 13:00 UTC · 7 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.75 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherTaker buy share (15m) 0.68 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.7598 ≥ 0.75 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5173 ≥ 0.51 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 261 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9968 ≥ 0.99 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.6809 ≥ 0.68 4 hours before · 31 Aug 09:00 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.53 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.65 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is flatTouches on the resistance 3 or moreShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5349 ≤ -0.53 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6552 ≥ 0.65 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.502 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 281 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 22 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support flat flat how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 1 hour before · 31 Aug 12:00 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Containment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is flatTouches on the resistance 3 or moreTaker buy share (15m) 0.34 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5022 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 284 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 25 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support flat flat how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3339 ≤ 0.34 15 minutes before · 31 Aug 12:45 UTC · 11 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.69 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.088 or lower15-minute range against usual 2.1 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is flatTouches on the resistance 3 or moreShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6995 ≤ -0.69 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.08787 ≤ 0.088 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.142 ≥ 2.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5022 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 284.8 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 25.75 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support flat flat how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 1 minute before · 31 Aug 12:59 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.96 or lower15-minute range against usual 2.1 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is flatTouches on the resistance 3 or moreShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9673 ≤ -0.96 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.142 ≥ 2.1 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5022 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 285 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 25.98 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support flat flat how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3
Two other reading times we tried 34 and 34 matches
1 minute before (12:59): order book tilt -0.96 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 2.1 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.5 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.96 and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.1 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.5
34 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 3 of 34 (8.8%), and 2% or more lower in 1 of 34 (2.9%).
Of the 34 matches, 21 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 10 after it.
15 minutes before (12:45): order book tilt -0.69 or lower, order book lopsidedness 0.088 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 2.1 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.69 and Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.088 and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.1
34 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 34 (5.9%), and 2% or more lower in 1 of 34 (2.9%).
Of the 34 matches, 25 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 9 after it.
The saved study leads with 12:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 183 matches came on 21 of 31 days, 5 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 13:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 21 layer 2 sector markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on ARB, 8 July to 6 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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