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Binance USDT-MFLOCKUSDT rose 75% on 4 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 14:00 hour at 0.03739 and reached a highest trade of 0.06538 in the 16:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 13:59.
What stood out at 13:59
- Order book tilt-0.9488Tested: -0.94 or lower
- 15-minute range against usual0.4582Tested: 0.46 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.5985Tested: 0.59 or higher
13:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any FLOCK minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
54 matches in 43,201 minutes checked; 2 missing a 30-minute close, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_ai, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 54 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.94 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.94 · feature.book_imbalance
- 15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.46 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.59 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 13:59 UTC on 4 September, one minute before the selected 14:00 start.
FLOCK only, 12 August to 10 September 2026 (UTC, ending 11 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every FLOCK minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 14:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
FLOCKUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-11 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#21efe0eb @ dataset d31fb5af, counted 12 Sep 2026 08:01 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 12 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 54 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was more often lower: 29 of the 52 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (56%).
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 2 of 50 complete windows (4.0%), against 7.8% with no condition (3,302 of 42,219): 0.51x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting.
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 8 of 52 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 2 of 52.
About 1.7 a day, on 17 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 11 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 17 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 10 of the 17 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (59%).
7 rose and 10 fell over 17 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.5 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this are common here: 240 of the 43,201 minutes searched (0.6%), about 7.7 a day. What followed was close to a coin flip: 112 rose and 121 fell over the next 30 minutes (233 of the 240 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
After 30 minutes this setup rose 2% or more in 4 of 233 complete windows (1.7%), against 5.4% with no condition (2,295 of 42,237): 0.32x.
About 7.7 a day, on 19 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 54 matches came on 17 of 30 days.
When the matches happened17 of 30 days
- 12 Aug2 matches
- 13 Aug1 match
- 14 Aug1 match
- 15 Aug2 matches
- 16 Aug4 matches
- 17 Aug1 match
- 18 Aug2 matches
- 20 Aug5 matches
- 21 Aug3 matches
- 31 Aug1 match
- 1 Sep1 match
- 2 Sep4 matches
- 3 Sep7 matches
- 4 Sep3 matches
- 8 Sep4 matches
- 9 Sep5 matches
- 10 Sep8 matches
No matches on the other 13 days.
Of the 54 matches, 37 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 17 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 54 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 54 matches came on 17 of 30 days.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any FLOCK minute.
- 30 minutes
3 of 52 (5.8%) were 2% or more lower; any FLOCK minute 1,984 of 42,237 (4.7%).
2 without a 30-minute close yet, left out.
- 1 hour
2 of 50 (4.0%) were 2% or more lower; any FLOCK minute 3,302 of 42,219 (7.8%).
4 without a 1-hour close yet, left out.
- 4 hours
13 of 51 (25.5%) were 2% or more lower; any FLOCK minute 7,503 of 42,033 (17.9%).
3 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
- 24 hours
7 of 43 (16.3%) were 2% or more lower; any FLOCK minute 12,008 of 40,822 (29.4%).
11 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
9 of 35 (25.7%) were 2% or more lower; any FLOCK minute 10,102 of 38,040 (26.6%).
19 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 14 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
4 of 32 (12.5%) were 2% or more lower; any FLOCK minute 3,557 of 32,477 (11.0%).
22 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 13 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 1 hour.
After 1 hour this setup fell 2% or more in 2 of 50 complete windows (4.0%), against 7.8% with no condition (3,302 of 42,219): 0.51x.
Only 50 of the 54 matches have a 1-hour close.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 1 hour, not the close):
Best point inside 1 hour reached +5% or more in 8 of 52 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 2 of 52.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 54 matches came on 17 of 30 days.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 3 Sep 14:00 UTC · 10 of 63 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.049 or lower1-hour range against usual 2.1 or higherSweep + reclaim (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change -0.034 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.032 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04851 ≤ 0.049 the last one-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_1h 2.176 ≥ 2.1 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6064 ≥ 0.6 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 61 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 61 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.03416 ≤ -0.034 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03226 ≥ 0.032 4 hours before · 4 Sep 10:00 UTC · 17 of 63 stood out
Containment (15m) is outsideLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 4hHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherThe distance from price to the descending resistance between 0 and 1How long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreThe distance from price to the short descending resistance between 0 and 1Time since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreThe support under the descending resistance is fallingHow many times price has touched the descending resistance 3 or higherOpen interest change rank 0.98 or higher15-minute price change 0.01 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.028 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6076 ≥ 0.6 the descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 the distance from price to the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_dist_atr 0.9493 0 to 1 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 81 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 the distance from price to the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_dist_atr 0.9493 0 to 1 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 81 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 7 ≥ 3 the support under the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling how many times price has touched the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_touches 7 ≥ 3 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9894 ≥ 0.98 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01033 ≥ 0.01 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02853 ≤ -0.028 1 hour before · 4 Sep 13:00 UTC · 16 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt 0.62 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.91 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 4hHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreThe support under the descending resistance is fallingHow many times price has touched the descending resistance 3 or higher15-minute price change -0.025 or lower1-hour price change -0.068 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.068 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6254 ≥ 0.62 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.913 ≥ 0.91 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.599 ≥ 0.59 the descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 84 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 84 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 7 ≥ 3 the support under the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling how many times price has touched the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_touches 7 ≥ 3 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.02549 ≤ -0.025 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.06814 ≤ -0.068 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06822 ≤ -0.068 15 minutes before · 4 Sep 13:45 UTC · 14 of 63 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 4hHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreThe support under the descending resistance is fallingHow many times price has touched the descending resistance 3 or higher1-hour price change -0.027 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.065 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4582 ≤ 0.46 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5985 ≥ 0.59 the descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 84.75 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 84.75 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 7 ≥ 3 the support under the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling how many times price has touched the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_touches 7 ≥ 3 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02731 ≤ -0.027 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06598 ≤ -0.065 1 minute before · 4 Sep 13:59 UTC · 14 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.94 or lower15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherThe descending resistance line is active 4hHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreThe support under the descending resistance is fallingHow many times price has touched the descending resistance 3 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.067 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9488 ≤ -0.94 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4582 ≤ 0.46 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5985 ≥ 0.59 the descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 84.98 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 84.98 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 7 ≥ 3 the support under the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_support falling falling how many times price has touched the descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_touches 7 ≥ 3 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.06736 ≤ -0.067
Two other reading times we tried 17 and 240 matches
15 minutes before (13:45): 15-minute range against usual 0.46 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.59 or higher, the descending resistance line is active 4h.
Compression · 15m ≤ 0.46 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59 and the descending resistance line active_4h
17 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 17, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 17.
Of the 17 matches, 17 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (13:00): order book tilt 0.62 or higher, order book lopsidedness 0.91 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.59 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.62 and Book imbalance percentile ≥ 0.91 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.59
240 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 4 of 233 (1.7%), and 2% or more lower in 6 of 233 (2.6%).
Of the 240 matches, 210 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 28 after it.
Rows with fewer than 30 results print counts only.
The saved study leads with 13:59: the narrowest set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 54 matches came on 17 of 30 days.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 14:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_ai, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-11 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.