Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MMAGMAUSDT rose 162% on 26 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 04:00 hour at 0.2215 and reached a highest trade of 0.5796 in the 00:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 00:00.
What stood out at 00:00
- Order book lopsidedness0.0401Tested: 0.041 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.622Tested: 0.62 or higher
- Minutes to funding0Tested: 1 or lower
00:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 1 of 2 were at or above the match price and 1 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 2 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book lopsidedness 0.041 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.041 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Liquidation bunching 0.62 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.62 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Minutes to funding 1 or lower.Minutes to funding ≤ 1 · feature.mins_to_funding
Read at 4 hours before the move.
Read at 00:00 UTC on 26 August, four hours before the selected 04:00 start.
MAGMA only, 2 August to 31 August 2026 (UTC, ending 1 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every MAGMA minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 04:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
MAGMAUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-01 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#c6941481 @ dataset 9bf4ae59, counted 1 Sep 2026 07:46 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 1 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 1 rose and 1 fell over the next 30 minutes (2 of the 2 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-26 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 2 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 2 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before · 26 Aug 00:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.041 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.62 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.038 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.0401 ≤ 0.041 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.622 ≥ 0.62 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03879 ≤ -0.038 1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 04:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on MAGMA, 3 July to 1 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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