Binance USDT-MSOPHUSDT rose 203% on 7 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 03:00 hour at 0.004162 and reached a highest trade of 0.0126 in the 09:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 02:45.
What stood out at 02:45
- Order book tilt-0.7021Tested: -0.7 or lower
- 4-hour range against usual0.3551Tested: 0.36 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.6594Tested: 0.65 or higher
02:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
20 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_2. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 20 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt -0.7 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.7 · feature.book_imbalance
- 4-hour range against usual 0.36 or lower. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.36 · feature.candle_compression_4h
- Liquidation bunching 0.65 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 02:45 UTC on 7 September, 15 minutes before the selected 03:00 start.
SOPH only, 12 August to 10 September 2026 (UTC, ending 11 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every SOPH minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 03:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SOPHUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-11 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#9b0def8b @ dataset d31fb5af, counted 12 Sep 2026 08:01 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 12 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 20 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 9 rose and 11 fell over the next 30 minutes (20 of the 20 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
9 rose and 11 fell over 20 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.6 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-10 alone holds 60% of them: this is close to a single episode.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 15 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 10 of the 15 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
10 rose and 5 fell over 15 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.5 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-10 alone holds 60% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 8 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (80%).
2 rose and 8 fell over 10 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-10 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 3 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
When the matches happened3 of 30 days
- 6 Sep4 matches
- 7 Sep4 matches
- 10 Sep12 matches
No matches on the other 27 days.
Of the 20 matches, 7 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 12 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 20 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 3 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any SOPH minute.
- 30 minutes
2 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any SOPH minute 1,748 of 43,041 (4.1%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
3 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any SOPH minute 2,955 of 43,010 (6.9%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
3 of 20 were 2% or more lower; any SOPH minute 7,636 of 42,829 (17.8%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
0 of 8 were 2% or more lower; any SOPH minute 12,735 of 41,630 (30.6%).
12 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 1 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
1 of 8 was 2% or more lower; any SOPH minute 10,827 of 38,759 (27.9%).
12 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 4 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
None of the 20 matches has a 7-day close yet, so there is no rate.
Any SOPH minute: 25,628 of 33,008 (77.6%) were 2% or more higher, 2,147 of 33,008 (6.5%) lower.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 3 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 6 Sep 03:00 UTC · 13 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.62 or lowerOrder book lopsidedness 0.9 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720The short descending resistance line is active 4hThe distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursThe support under the short descending resistance is fallingTouches on the resistance 3 or moreTaker buy share (15m) 0.34 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6211 ≤ -0.62 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9023 ≥ 0.9 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.657 ≥ 0.65 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr 0.13 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 89 12 to 720 the short descending resistance line feature.desc_resistance_short_active active_4h active_4h the distance from price back to the broken short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_dist_atr -0.2186 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 89 12 to 720 the support under the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_support falling falling how many times price has touched the short descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_short_touches 3 ≥ 3 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3379 ≤ 0.34 4 hours before · 6 Sep 23:00 UTC · 10 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.85 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.32 or lowerUpper wick (15m) 0.68 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.34 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8566 ≤ -0.85 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3127 ≤ 0.32 Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.68 ≥ 0.68 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6588 ≥ 0.65 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.2049 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 109 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 109 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3342 ≤ 0.34 1 hour before · 7 Sep 02:00 UTC · 9 of 63 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.045 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.36 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursTaker buy share (15m) 0.29 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.04486 ≤ 0.045 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3551 ≤ 0.36 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6591 ≥ 0.65 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.1164 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 112 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 112 12 to 720 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.2866 ≤ 0.29 15 minutes before · 7 Sep 02:45 UTC · 8 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.7 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.36 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7021 ≤ -0.7 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3551 ≤ 0.36 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6594 ≥ 0.65 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.2182 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 112.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 112.8 12 to 720 1 minute before · 7 Sep 02:59 UTC · 8 of 63 stood out
Order book tilt -0.91 or lower4-hour range against usual 0.36 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.65 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.9131 ≤ -0.91 the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3551 ≤ 0.36 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6594 ≥ 0.65 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.1465 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 113 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 5 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 113 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 15 and 10 matches
1 minute before (02:59): order book tilt -0.91 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 0.36 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.65 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.91 and the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.36 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65
15 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 15, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 15.
Of the 15 matches, 6 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 9 after it.
1 hour before (02:00): order book lopsidedness 0.045 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 0.36 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.65 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.045 and the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline ≤ 0.36 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.65
10 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 10, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 10.
Of the 10 matches, 5 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 5 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 20 matches came on 3 of 30 days, 1 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 03:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_layer_2. Choose one explicitly.
Each opens Review the test; nothing runs until you press Run.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-12 to 2026-09-11 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.