Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MSYNUSDT rose 169% on 15 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
What happened
Price opened the 21:00 hour at 0.0809 and reached a highest trade of 0.2179 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 20:59.
What stood out at 20:59
- 15-minute range against usual2.014Tested: 2 or higher
- 4-hour range against usual2.756Tested: 2.7 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.5145Tested: 0.51 or higher
20:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
Too few results to compare
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
10 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
No test to open
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_defi. Choose one explicitly.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 10 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- 15-minute range against usual 2 or higher. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≥ 2 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- 4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higher. The last finished 4-hour candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 4h ≥ 2.7 · feature.candle_compression_4h
- Liquidation bunching 0.51 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.51 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 20:59 UTC on 15 September, one minute before the selected 21:00 start.
SYN only, 19 August to 17 September 2026 (UTC, ending 18 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every SYN minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 21:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
SYNUSDT stored readings end 2026-09-18 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#67445b97 @ dataset 8904ef04, counted 18 Sep 2026 09:26 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 18 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 10 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 6 of the 10 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (60%).
6 rose and 4 fell over 10 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day, on 5 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 18 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 4 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
4 rose and 2 fell over 6 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-15 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 1 of the 1 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (100%).
1 rose and 0 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-22 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
When the matches happened5 of 30 days
- 20 Aug1 match
- 22 Aug3 matches
- 31 Aug1 match
- 15 Sep2 matches
- 16 Sep3 matches
No matches on the other 25 days.
Of the 10 matches, 6 came before the rise began, 3 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 10 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any SYN minute.
- 30 minutes
3 of 10 were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 1,150 of 43,075 (2.7%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
3 of 10 were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 2,077 of 43,047 (4.8%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
3 of 10 were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 4,580 of 42,865 (10.7%).
Every match has a 4-hour close.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
5 of 10 were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 14,275 of 41,666 (34.3%).
Every match has a 24-hour close.
At least 3 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
4 of 5 were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 19,459 of 38,787 (50.2%).
5 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
- 7 days
4 of 5 were 2% or more lower; any SYN minute 24,000 of 33,050 (72.6%).
5 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 14 Sep 21:00 UTC · 11 of 65 stood out
1-hour range against usual 9.7 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.5 or higherLower wick (15m) 0.6 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherTouches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.011 or higher1-hour price change 0.098 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.057 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 9.763 ≥ 9.7 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.507 ≥ 2.5 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.6071 ≥ 0.6 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5033 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 630 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9999 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01121 ≥ 0.011 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.09866 ≥ 0.098 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0578 ≥ 0.057 4 hours before · 15 Sep 17:00 UTC · 12 of 65 stood out
Order book tilt 0.59 or higher15-minute range against usual 3.1 or higher1-hour range against usual 3.4 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.5 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.023 or higher1-hour price change 0.024 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.031 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.5947 ≥ 0.59 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 3.158 ≥ 3.1 Compression · 1h feature.candle_compression_1h 3.405 ≥ 3.4 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5099 ≥ 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 21 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 650 12 to 720 OI change magnitude score feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02326 ≥ 0.023 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.02451 ≥ 0.024 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03127 ≥ 0.031 1 hour before · 15 Sep 20:00 UTC · 9 of 65 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.22 or lower4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price -0.021 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.2152 ≤ 0.22 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.756 ≥ 2.7 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5145 ≥ 0.51 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.2825 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 24 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 653 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.02141 ≤ -0.021 15 minutes before · 15 Sep 20:45 UTC · 10 of 65 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.055 or lower15-minute range against usual 2 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hours15-minute price change 0.022 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.05407 ≤ 0.055 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.014 ≥ 2 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.756 ≥ 2.7 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5145 ≥ 0.51 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.458 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 24.75 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 653.8 12 to 720 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02264 ≥ 0.022 1 minute before · 15 Sep 20:59 UTC · 8 of 65 stood out
15-minute range against usual 2 or higher4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.51 or higherThe distance from price back to the broken descending resistance between -0.5 and 0.5How many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.014 ≥ 2 Compression · 4h feature.candle_compression_4h 2.756 ≥ 2.7 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5145 ≥ 0.51 the distance from price back to the broken descending resistance feature.desc_resistance_broken_dist_atr -0.4107 -0.5 to 0.5 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 24.98 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 654 12 to 720
Two other reading times we tried 6 and 2 matches
15 minutes before (20:45): order book lopsidedness 0.055 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 2 or higher, 4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higher.
Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.055 and Compression · 15m ≥ 2 and Compression · 4h ≥ 2.7
6 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 2 of 6, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 6.
Of the 6 matches, 3 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 1 after it.
1 hour before (20:00): 15-minute range against usual 0.22 or lower, 4-hour range against usual 2.7 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.51 or higher.
Compression · 15m ≤ 0.22 and Compression · 4h ≥ 2.7 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.51
2 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 0 of 1, and 2% or more lower in 0 of 1.
Of the 2 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 10 matches came on 5 of 30 days, 3 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 21:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_crypto, sector_defi. Choose one explicitly.
Each opens Review the test; nothing runs until you press Run.
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Starting defaults and coverage
Starting defaults: 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-18 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.