Binance USDT-MTAKEUSDT rose 152% on 2 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 11:00 hour at 0.03127 and reached a highest trade of 0.0788 in the 07:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 10:45.
What stood out at 10:45
- Order book tilt-0.5676Tested: -0.56 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.6098Tested: 0.6 or higher
- 15-minute price change0.02083Tested: 0.02 or higher
10:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 59 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 10 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 59 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed was close to a coin flip: 30 rose and 29 fell over the next 30 minutes (59 of the 59 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
About 1.9 a day, on 14 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared 40 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (<0.1%). What followed leaned down: 26 of the 40 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (65%).
About 1.3 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared 48 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.1%). What followed leaned down: 30 of the 48 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (63%).
About 1.5 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.56 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.56 · feature.book_imbalance
- Liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- 15-minute price change 0.02 or higher. Close to close change over the last 15 minutes, as a fraction of price.Return · 15m ≥ 0.02 · feature.ret_15m
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 10:45 UTC on 2 August, 15 minutes before the selected 11:00 start.
TAKE only, 10 July to 8 August 2026 (UTC, ending 9 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every TAKE minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 11:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
TAKEUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-09 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#d5da0267 @ dataset 34c2a990, counted 10 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 59 matches, 12 came before the rise began, 41 during it and 6 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 59 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 1 Aug 11:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.79 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higher15-minute price change -0.03 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.7946 ≤ -0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5935 ≥ 0.59 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m -0.03093 ≤ -0.03 4 hours before · 2 Aug 07:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.9 or higherSweep + reclaim (15m) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.73 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.021 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.9071 ≥ 0.9 Sweep + reclaim · 15m feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_15m bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.7368 ≥ 0.73 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6068 ≥ 0.6 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02146 ≥ 0.021 1 hour before · 2 Aug 10:00 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.64 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higher1-hour price change 0.032 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.059 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6473 ≥ 0.64 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6079 ≥ 0.6 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03281 ≥ 0.032 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.05976 ≥ 0.059 15 minutes before · 2 Aug 10:45 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.56 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higher15-minute price change 0.02 or higher1-hour price change 0.046 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.09 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5676 ≤ -0.56 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6098 ≥ 0.6 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.02083 ≥ 0.02 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04671 ≥ 0.046 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.0908 ≥ 0.09 1 minute before · 2 Aug 10:59 UTC · 4 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.87 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.6 or higher1-hour price change 0.032 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.083 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8719 ≤ -0.87 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.6098 ≥ 0.6 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03273 ≥ 0.032 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.08343 ≥ 0.083
Two other reading times we tried 40 and 48 matches
1 minute before (10:59): order book tilt -0.87 or lower, liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher, 1-hour price change 0.032 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.87 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and Return · 1h ≥ 0.032
40 matches.
Of the 40 matches, 7 came before the rise began, 29 during it and 4 after it.
1 hour before (10:00): order book tilt 0.64 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.6 or higher, 1-hour price change 0.032 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.64 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.6 and Return · 1h ≥ 0.032
48 matches.
Of the 48 matches, 10 came before the rise began, 34 during it and 4 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 11:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on TAKE, 10 June to 9 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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