Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-MVICUSDT rose 147% on 3 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 08:00 hour at 0.02732 and reached a highest trade of 0.06745 in the 01:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 07:45.
What stood out at 07:45
- Order book tilt-0.8976Tested: -0.89 or lower
- Lower wick (15m)0.7912Tested: 0.79 or higher
- Liquidation bunching0.5707Tested: 0.57 or higher
07:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 24 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 8 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 24 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 14 of the 24 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (58%).
About 0.8 a day, on 14 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 6 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 5 of the 6 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (83%).
About 0.2 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 2 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned down: 2 of the 2 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (100%).
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-08-03 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.89 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.89 · feature.book_imbalance
- Lower wick (15m) 0.79 or higher.Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.79 · feature.candle_lower_wick_15m
- Liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 07:45 UTC on 3 August, 15 minutes before the selected 08:00 start.
VIC only, 8 July to 6 August 2026 (UTC, ending 7 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every VIC minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 08:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
VICUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-07 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#02f2d50a @ dataset 84e561d5, counted 8 Aug 2026 02:54 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 24 matches, 23 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 24 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 2 Aug 08:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.63 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6317 ≤ -0.63 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5856 ≥ 0.58 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 4 hours before · 3 Aug 04:00 UTC · 8 of 39 stood out
15-minute range against usual 5.2 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherVolatility rank 0.99 or higher15-minute price change 0.095 or higher1-hour price change -0.16 or lowerVPIN regime is elevatedDistance from the day's average price 0.028 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 5.263 ≥ 5.2 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5748 ≥ 0.57 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 1 ≥ 0.99 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.09522 ≥ 0.095 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.1638 ≤ -0.16 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02895 ≥ 0.028 1 hour before · 3 Aug 07:00 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.6 or higher15-minute range against usual 0.38 or lowerContainment (15m) is outsideUpper wick (15m) 0.64 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higher1-hour price change -0.032 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.6048 ≥ 0.6 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3787 ≤ 0.38 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.6471 ≥ 0.64 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5711 ≥ 0.57 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.03244 ≤ -0.032 15 minutes before · 3 Aug 07:45 UTC · 6 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.89 or lowerLower wick (15m) 0.79 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherMinutes to funding 15 or lower1-hour price change -0.025 or lowerDistance from the day's average price -0.033 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.8976 ≤ -0.89 Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.7912 ≥ 0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5707 ≥ 0.57 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 15 ≤ 15 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h -0.02573 ≤ -0.025 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.03365 ≤ -0.033 1 minute before · 3 Aug 07:59 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Lower wick (15m) 0.79 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.57 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lower15-minute price change 0.019 or higherVPIN regime is elevatedShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Lower wick · 15m feature.candle_lower_wick_15m 0.7912 ≥ 0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5707 ≥ 0.57 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01972 ≥ 0.019 VPIN regime feature.vpin_regime elevated elevated
Two other reading times we tried 6 and 2 matches
1 minute before (07:59): lower wick (15m) 0.79 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.57 or higher, minutes to funding 1 or lower.
Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.79 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.57 and Minutes to funding ≤ 1
6 matches.
Of the 6 matches, 6 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (07:00): order book tilt 0.6 or higher, 15-minute range against usual 0.38 or lower, containment (15m) is outside.
Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.6 and Compression · 15m ≤ 0.38 and Containment · 15m outside
2 matches.
Of the 2 matches, 1 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 08:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on VIC, 8 June to 7 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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