Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 148% on 2 September 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 15:00 hour at 0.01444 and reached a highest trade of 0.03576 in the 18:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 14:00.
What stood out at 14:00
- Order book tilt0.884Tested: 0.88 or higher
- Order book lopsidedness0.09712Tested: 0.098 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.5817Tested: 0.58 or higher
14:00 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
More often than any 4 minute, in this sample
Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes
90 matches in 43,201 minutes checked.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 90 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book tilt 0.88 or higher. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≥ 0.88 · feature.book_imbalance
- Order book lopsidedness 0.098 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.098 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 hour before the move.
Read at 14:00 UTC on 2 September, one hour before the selected 15:00 start.
4 only, 10 August to 8 September 2026 (UTC, ending 9 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 15:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-09 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#8be1258d @ dataset 418a74e4, counted 9 Sep 2026 09:58 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 9 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared 90 times in the 43,201 minutes searched (0.2%). What followed was more often lower: 50 of the 90 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (56%).
After 7 days this setup fell 2% or more in 1 of 35 complete windows (2.9%), against 17.0% with no condition (5,636 of 33,101): 0.17x.
This reports the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute, chosen after counting. At least 26 of its 35 windows overlap the rise.
Best point inside 7 days reached +5% or more in 35 of 35 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 31 of 35.
At least 31 windows did both.
About 2.9 a day, on 12 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
It counts the single minute on 9 September as a day.
The other reading times, as written
From 1 minute before
Minutes like this appeared only 27 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 14 rose and 13 fell over the next 30 minutes (27 of the 27 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
14 rose and 13 fell over 27 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.9 a day, on 21 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 8 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was close to a coin flip: 4 rose and 4 fell over the next 30 minutes (8 of the 8 matches have a complete 30 minutes forward).
4 rose and 4 fell over 8 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day, on 8 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 90 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 9 during the rise.
When the matches happened12 of 30 days
- 11 Aug1 match
- 12 Aug8 matches
- 29 Aug7 matches
- 30 Aug4 matches
- 31 Aug7 matches
- 1 Sep8 matches
- 2 Sep12 matches
- 4 Sep2 matches
- 5 Sep6 matches
- 6 Sep13 matches
- 7 Sep13 matches
- 8 Sep9 matches
No matches on the other 18 days.
Of the 90 matches, 45 came before the rise began, 9 during it and 36 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 90 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 90 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 9 during the rise.
Other time frames30 minutes to 7 days
The answer uses 30 minutes, the time frame this study counted by default. Each row counts the same matches at a later close, in both directions. The bars show how often price was 2% or more higher at each time frame: first the matches, then any 4 minute.
- 30 minutes
15 of 90 (16.7%) were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 3,338 of 43,149 (7.7%).
Every match has a 30-minute close.
At least 9 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 1 hour
15 of 90 (16.7%) were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 5,140 of 43,119 (11.9%).
Every match has a 1-hour close.
At least 9 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 4 hours
26 of 88 (29.5%) were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 11,328 of 42,939 (26.4%).
2 without a 4-hour close yet, left out.
At least 9 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 24 hours
40 of 81 (49.4%) were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 16,363 of 41,739 (39.2%).
9 without a 24-hour close yet, left out.
At least 9 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 72 hours
26 of 55 (47.3%) were 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 12,523 of 38,859 (32.2%).
35 without a 72-hour close yet, left out.
At least 24 of these windows overlap the rise.
- 7 days
1 of 35 (2.9%) was 2% or more lower; any 4 minute 5,636 of 33,101 (17.0%).
55 without a 7-day close yet, left out.
At least 26 of these windows overlap the rise.
The saved summary picked, after counting, the time frame with the biggest gap from any minute: 7 days.
After 7 days this setup fell 2% or more in 1 of 35 complete windows (2.9%), against 17.0% with no condition (5,636 of 33,101): 0.17x.
Only 35 of the 90 matches have a 7-day close, all from 11 August to 1 September, and at least 26 of those windows ran through the rise itself, so it partly counts the rise as an outcome.
Along the way (the highest and lowest price inside 7 days, not the close):
Best point inside 7 days reached +5% or more in 35 of 35 complete windows; worst point fell 5% or more in 31 of 35.
At least 31 windows did both, so this describes a very jumpy stretch, not a direction.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 90 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 9 during the rise.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 1 Sep 15:00 UTC · 7 of 58 stood out
4-hour range against usual 0.31 or lowerEngulfing (15m) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.59 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule the last four-hour candle range versus its baseline feature.candle_compression_4h 0.3044 ≤ 0.31 Engulfing · 15m feature.candle_engulfing_15m bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5906 ≥ 0.59 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 114 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 114 12 to 720 4 hours before · 2 Sep 11:00 UTC · 12 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.98 or higherContainment (15m) is outsideLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursOpen interest change rank 0.99 or higherVolatility rank 0.98 or higher15-minute price change 0.013 or higher1-hour price change 0.047 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.025 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9884 ≥ 0.98 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m outside outside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5817 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 134 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 134 12 to 720 OI velocity percentile feature.oi_velocity_pctrank 0.9995 ≥ 0.99 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9866 ≥ 0.98 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01346 ≥ 0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04791 ≥ 0.047 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02572 ≥ 0.025 1 hour before · 2 Sep 14:00 UTC · 8 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt 0.88 or higherOrder book lopsidedness 0.098 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursDistance from the day's average price 0.02 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.884 ≥ 0.88 Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.09712 ≤ 0.098 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5817 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 137 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 137 12 to 720 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.02042 ≥ 0.02 15 minutes before · 2 Sep 14:45 UTC · 10 of 58 stood out
15-minute range against usual 2.6 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.96 or higher15-minute price change 0.013 or higher1-hour price change 0.038 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.05 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.631 ≥ 2.6 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.585 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 137.8 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 137.8 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9687 ≥ 0.96 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01304 ≥ 0.013 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.03808 ≥ 0.038 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.05086 ≥ 0.05 1 minute before · 2 Sep 14:59 UTC · 11 of 58 stood out
Order book tilt -0.69 or lower15-minute range against usual 2.6 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.58 or higherHow many times the broken descending resistance had been tested 3 or higherHow long ago the descending resistance broke between 12 and 720Touches on the broken resistance 3 or moreTime since the resistance broke between 12 and 720 hoursVolatility rank 0.97 or higher15-minute price change 0.014 or higher1-hour price change 0.047 or higherDistance from the day's average price 0.057 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.6982 ≤ -0.69 Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 2.631 ≥ 2.6 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.585 ≥ 0.58 how many times the broken descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_broken_touches 4 ≥ 3 how long ago the descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_hours_since_break 138 12 to 720 how many times the broken short descending resistance had been tested feature.desc_resistance_short_broken_touches 3 ≥ 3 how long ago the short descending resistance broke feature.desc_resistance_short_hours_since_break 138 12 to 720 Realized vol percentile feature.realized_vol_pctrank 0.9764 ≥ 0.97 Return · 15m feature.ret_15m 0.01432 ≥ 0.014 Return · 1h feature.ret_1h 0.04792 ≥ 0.047 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.05775 ≥ 0.057
Two other reading times we tried 27 and 8 matches
1 minute before (14:59): order book tilt -0.69 or lower, 15-minute range against usual 2.6 or higher, volatility rank 0.97 or higher.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.69 and Compression · 15m ≥ 2.6 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.97
27 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 5 of 27, and 2% or more lower in 5 of 27.
Of the 27 matches, 20 came before the rise began, 4 during it and 3 after it.
15 minutes before (14:45): 15-minute range against usual 2.6 or higher, liquidation bunching 0.58 or higher, volatility rank 0.96 or higher.
Compression · 15m ≥ 2.6 and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.58 and Realized vol percentile ≥ 0.96
8 matches: price was 2% or more higher after 30 minutes in 1 of 8, and 2% or more lower in 1 of 8.
Of the 8 matches, 4 came before the rise began, 1 during it and 3 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
The saved study leads with 14:00 because it is the only set with at least 30 matches before the rise.
Picked after the rise, on one market; the 90 matches came on 12 of 30 days, 9 during the rise.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 15:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
- This market only
- The 71 sector alpha markets · No result for these markets has been measured.
- Every recorded market
Same 3 conditions on 4, 11 July to 9 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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