Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 84% on 28 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 18:00 hour at 0.01183 and reached a highest trade of 0.0218 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 17:45.
What stood out at 17:45
- 15-minute range against usual0.4763Tested: 0.48 or lower
- Sweep + reclaim (1h)bullishTested: is bullish
- Liquidation bunching0.5499Tested: 0.54 or higher
17:45 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 4 of 9 were at or above the match price and 5 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
Nothing runs until you press Run.
Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 9 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- 15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lower. The last finished 15-minute candle's high to low range, as a multiple of its usual range.Compression · 15m ≤ 0.48 · feature.candle_compression_15m
- Sweep + reclaim (1h) is bullish.Sweep + reclaim · 1h bullish · feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h
- Liquidation bunching 0.54 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.54 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 15 minutes before the move.
Read at 17:45 UTC on 28 August, 15 minutes before the selected 18:00 start.
4 only, 4 August to 2 September 2026 (UTC, ending 3 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 18:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-03 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#02a265f5 @ dataset e92709f8, counted 4 Sep 2026 07:57 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 4 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 9 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often lower: 5 of the 9 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward fell (56%).
Usually lower after 30 minutes: 5 of 9 completed windows fell (55.6%). No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
About 0.3 a day, on 7 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 9 matches, 8 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 9 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before · 28 Aug 17:45 UTC · 4 of 53 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.48 or lowerSweep + reclaim (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.54 or higherDistance from the day's average price -0.089 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.4763 ≤ 0.48 Sweep + reclaim · 1h feature.candle_sweep_reclaim_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5499 ≥ 0.54 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist -0.08978 ≤ -0.089 1 minute before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 18:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on 4, 5 July to 3 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
Running needs a free account and uses your allowance; you see the cost first.