Research is a work in progress. Estimated release: 1 December 2026. Our goal is to make it a search engine for trading setups in recorded crypto markets.
Binance USDT-M4USDT rose 96% on 27 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 00:00 hour at 0.01113 and reached a highest trade of 0.0218 in the 04:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 23:59.
What stood out at 23:59
- Order book lopsidedness0.07706Tested: 0.078 or lower
- Liquidation bunching0.5305Tested: 0.53 or higher
- Minutes to funding1Tested: 1 or lower
23:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
30 minutes later, 13 of 19 were at or above the match price and 6 below; no reference was saved
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 19 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
- Order book lopsidedness 0.078 or lower. How lopsided the sizes at the best bid and ask were, either way, against recent readings; low means unusually even.Book imbalance percentile ≤ 0.078 · feature.book_imbalance_pctrank
- Liquidation bunching 0.53 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.53 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
- Minutes to funding 1 or lower.Minutes to funding ≤ 1 · feature.mins_to_funding
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 23:59 UTC on 26 August, one minute before the selected 00:00 start.
4 only, 3 August to 1 September 2026 (UTC, ending 2 September 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every 4 minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 00:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
4USDT stored readings end 2026-09-02 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#c4d63c3d @ dataset 489ec93a, counted 3 Sep 2026 07:51 UTC.
Saved summary text, as written 3 Sep 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 19 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed was more often higher: 13 of the 19 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (68%).
About 0.6 a day, on 15 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
When the matches happened
Of the 19 matches, 15 came before the rise began, 2 during it and 2 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 19 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
4 hours before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 hour before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
15 minutes before
No readings were recorded for this minute.
1 minute before · 26 Aug 23:59 UTC · 3 of 41 stood out
Order book lopsidedness 0.078 or lowerLiquidation bunching 0.53 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance percentile feature.book_imbalance_pctrank 0.07706 ≤ 0.078 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5305 ≥ 0.53 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 1 ≤ 1
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 00:00 start was picked after the move.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on 4, 4 July to 2 August 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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