Binance USDT-MAPRUSDT rose 203% on 12 August 2026
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Next stepWhat happened
Price opened the 04:00 hour at 0.2085 and reached a highest trade of 0.6325 in the 23:00 hour; the tested readings were taken at 03:59.
What stood out at 03:59
- Order book tilt-0.5517Tested: -0.55 or lower
- Engulfing (1h)bearishTested: is bearish
- Liquidation bunching0.5589Tested: 0.55 or higher
03:59 always meets its own rules.
What the record says
No counts were saved to compare, only the summary text
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Evidence
Does it hold on other dates?
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Exactly what was counted3 conditions · 14 of 43,201 minutes · saved text
Saved summary text, as written 15 Aug 2026
Written automatically when this study was saved and kept as written; where a line differs from the counts above, the counts govern.
Minutes like this appeared only 14 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 8 of the 14 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (57%).
About 0.5 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
The other reading times, as written
From 15 minutes before
Minutes like this appeared only 14 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 9 of the 14 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (64%).
About 0.5 a day, on 10 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
From 1 hour before
Minutes like this appeared only 3 times in the 43,201 minutes searched. What followed leaned up: 2 of the 3 matches with a complete 30 minutes forward rose (67%).
About 0.1 a day, on 3 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
- Order book tilt -0.55 or lower. Size at the best bid against the best ask; above 0 means more bids, below 0 more asks.Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.55 · feature.book_imbalance
- Engulfing (1h) is bearish.Engulfing · 1h bearish · feature.candle_engulfing_1h
- Liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher. How bunched in time recent liquidations were; higher means more bunched, and it stays below 1.Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55 · feature.cascade_clustering_index
Read at 1 minute before the move.
Read at 03:59 UTC on 12 August, one minute before the selected 04:00 start.
APR only, 15 July to 13 August 2026 (UTC, ending 14 August 00:00); all 3 readings had values on 43,201 of those minutes.
Reference: every APR minute over the same dates, matches included; it is not a matched control group.
Outcome: the close exactly 30 minutes later, not the highest or lowest price along the way.
The 04:00 start was picked automatically after the move.
APRUSDT stored readings end 2026-08-14 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Prices and tick replay have separate coverage.
The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Saved study q#3bba9009 @ dataset de1f6756, counted 15 Aug 2026 02:45 UTC.
When the matches happened
Of the 14 matches, 14 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
Neighbouring minutes overlap, so these are not 14 separate trials.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Readings at five times before the rise24 hours to 1 minute before · 2 other times tried
Highlights follow fixed rules, not significance tests. Proposed conditions round values or use ranges; inspect them before running.
24 hours before · 11 Aug 04:00 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt 0.97 or higherContainment (15m) is insideLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance 0.9774 ≥ 0.97 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5574 ≥ 0.55 4 hours before · 12 Aug 00:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
Engulfing (1h) is bullishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherMinutes to funding 1 or lowerTaker buy share (15m) 0.33 or lowerDistance from the day's average price 0.034 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bullish bullish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5589 ≥ 0.55 Minutes to funding feature.mins_to_funding 0 ≤ 1 Taker buy share · 15m feature.taker_buy_ratio_15m 0.3204 ≤ 0.33 VWAP distance · day feature.vwap_dist 0.03472 ≥ 0.034 1 hour before · 12 Aug 03:00 UTC · 5 of 39 stood out
15-minute range against usual 0.32 or lowerContainment (15m) is insideEngulfing (1h) is bearishUpper wick (15m) 0.79 or higherLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Compression · 15m feature.candle_compression_15m 0.3109 ≤ 0.32 Containment · 15m feature.candle_containment_15m inside inside Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Upper wick · 15m feature.candle_upper_wick_15m 0.8 ≥ 0.79 Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5589 ≥ 0.55 15 minutes before · 12 Aug 03:45 UTC · 2 of 39 stood out
Engulfing (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5589 ≥ 0.55 1 minute before · 12 Aug 03:59 UTC · 3 of 39 stood out
Order book tilt -0.55 or lowerEngulfing (1h) is bearishLiquidation bunching 0.55 or higherShow the full readings
Reading Value at that minute Stored rule Book imbalance · top levels feature.book_imbalance -0.5517 ≤ -0.55 Engulfing · 1h feature.candle_engulfing_1h bearish bearish Cascade clustering feature.cascade_clustering_index 0.5589 ≥ 0.55
Two other reading times we tried 14 and 3 matches
15 minutes before (03:45): engulfing (1h) is bearish, liquidation bunching 0.55 or higher.
Engulfing · 1h bearish and Cascade clustering ≥ 0.55
14 matches.
Of the 14 matches, 14 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 0 after it.
1 hour before (03:00): 15-minute range against usual 0.32 or lower, containment (15m) is inside, engulfing (1h) is bearish.
Compression · 15m ≤ 0.32 and Containment · 15m inside and Engulfing · 1h bearish
3 matches.
Of the 3 matches, 2 came before the rise began, 0 during it and 1 after it.
Fewer than 30 results, so no rate is printed.
No set had 30 matches before the rise; the saved study leads with the one that had the most.
Picked after the rise, on one market.
Hourly candles around the risefull context, lead-up, move
The 04:00 start was picked after the move, and the hour before was already rising.
Hourly candles, UTC. The marked lines are the minutes the readings came from: 1 minute, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 24 hours before the selected start.
Other ways to test itsame dates
Same 3 conditions on APR, 15 June to 14 July 2026.
Each opens Review the test.
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