Checking readings…
A decision time that has not been read recently can take several seconds.
A decision time that has not been read recently can take several seconds.
From the selected start to end, not the return from the decision time.
Close-to-close change before the decision.
Fewer open contracts; long or short side is not identified.
Exchange-reported forced trades; feed coverage is limited.
Use this minute to form a question about similar conditions. The later move is known in hindsight; these readings alone do not explain its cause or show that it was predictable.
Matching means meeting every displayed threshold or range, not repeating the exact readings. For example, return ≤ −0.15% includes −0.30%, but excludes −0.10%. Category conditions require the same category.
7 of 7 key readings recorded. Hover a reading name or tap its info icon for a definition.
These readings describe the minute, not what followed.
The automatic start is the last covered hourly candle touching the bottom 5% of the episode range (top 5% for a fall), measured using the eventual extreme. It is a hindsight anchor, not a detected causal onset. Change the start above to inspect a later acceleration. The end marks the hour containing the price extreme, not an exact tick. The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
The earlier snapshots are still being read.
Reads 19 sampled minutes from the selected start to one hour after the end, with extra samples in the peak hour: separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
No additional reads have run.
Historical access applies. Missing values stay unavailable; liquidations are Binance publications, not venue totals; the OI score is an absolute USD change, not signed contract growth.
Still counting. The comparison appears here when it finishes.
Free replay covers BTCUSDT on Binance Futures, the past 3 days. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches available recorded replay history. Access is checked when you open a replay.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.
From the selected start to end, not the return from the decision time.
Close-to-close change before the decision.
Fewer open contracts; long or short side is not identified.
Exchange-reported forced trades; feed coverage is limited.
Use this minute to form a question about similar conditions. The later move is known in hindsight; these readings alone do not explain its cause or show that it was predictable.
Book imbalance · top levels ≤ -0.55 AND Cascade clustering ≥ 0.67 AND the short descending resistance line active_4h
Matching means meeting every displayed threshold or range, not repeating the exact readings. For example, return ≤ −0.15% includes −0.30%, but excludes −0.10%. Category conditions require the same category.
Sector and volume lists are unavailable. Retry or explicitly choose another population.
2026-09-05 to 2026-10-05 UTC. Recorded membership at this dataset revision, not a claim of historical membership.
No resolved roster.
The conditions were selected while investigating this move. This is exploratory evidence, not an independent validation.
The comparison measures: Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes. It does not test a repeat of the entire selected rise.
Treat this as a candidate condition. Keep its definition fixed and check a separate period, including failures, before applying it to another market.
A rare reading and a useful predictor are different questions. No uniqueness or causal mechanism is established by this comparison.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all matches came within 4 days.
Free replay covers BTCUSDT on Binance Futures, the past 3 days. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches available recorded replay history. Access is checked when you open a replay.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.
Five separate snapshots before the decision, not a continuous tape. Green above zero, red below; unavailable is never zero.
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance from VWAPread at the minute itself · Highlight: ≤ -2.00% or ≥ +2.00% | +4.04% | -5.39% | -6.62% | -7.70% | -7.53% |
| Spot/perpetual close basisfrom matching closed one-minute perpetual and spot bars | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| realized-volatility rankmeasured over the trailing hour | 44th pctl | 54th pctl | 60th pctl | 25th pctl | 45th pctl |
| share of the hour's variance that came from jumpsmeasured over the trailing hour | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| trailing 15-minute returnmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | +0.21% | -0.40% | +0.00% | -0.49% | -0.25% |
| trailing one-hour rangemeasured over the trailing hour | 1.38% | 2.15% | 2.36% | 1.98% | 3.29% |
| trailing one-hour returnmeasured over the trailing hour | +0.69% | -0.94% | +0.57% | -1.30% | -1.30% |
| Trailing one-hour realized volatilitymeasured over the trailing hour | 0.16% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.14% | 0.19% |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar volume over 15 minutesmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | $23K | $34K | $29K | $37K | $132K |
| Flow toxicity against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 34th pctl | 35th pctl | 49th pctl | 47th pctl | 75th pctl |
| Illiquidity against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 98th pctl | 85th pctl | 85th pctl | 84th pctl | 45th pctl |
| Informed-trading pressure |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding against this market's own settled historythe venue value last published before that minute | 32nd pctl | 32nd pctl | 32nd pctl | 32nd pctl | 32nd pctl |
| Funding minus premium indexlatest funding minus the published premium index | -0.1077% | +0.0050% | -0.0045% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% |
| How much of the hour's volume became new positionsmeasured over the trailing hour | -6.48% | -0.87% | -4.19% | +11.5% | -2.43% |
| Minutes until funding settles |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade clusteringread at the minute itself · Highlight: ≥ 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Liquidation intensityread at the minute itself | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liquidations in the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | $143 | $4K | $313 | $0 | $5K |
| Longs liquidated in the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | $143 | $4K | $6 | $0 | $5K |
| Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | $0 | $0 |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order-book imbalanceread at the minute itself · Highlight: ≤ -0.5 or ≥ 0.5 | 68% ASK | 98% ASK | 54% BID | 67% ASK | 78% ASK |
| book capture regimestamped once for the whole symbol-day from the capture era | native | native | native | native | native |
| cost of buying 100k from the bookread at the minute itself | 431 bps | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 457 bps |
| cost of selling 100k into the book |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinefrom the last completed 15-minute candle | 0.85× | 0.79× | 0.33× | 0.55× | 0.55× |
| last four-hour candle range versus its baselinefrom the last completed four-hour candle | 2.54× | 1.24× | 1.03× | 1.03× | 1.03× |
| last one-hour candle range versus its baselinefrom the last completed one-hour candle | 0.63× | 0.69× | 0.71× | 0.71× | 0.71× |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time since resistance breakread at the minute itself · Highlight: 12 h to 720 h (inclusive) | 54 h | 74 h | 77 h | 77.8 h | 78 h |
| Resistance line spanread at the minute itself | 17.7 d | 18.3 d | 18.3 d | 18.3 d | 18.3 d |
| Resistance touchesread at the minute itself · Highlight: ≥ 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Touches before resistance breakread at the minute itself · Highlight: ≥ 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Line ATR contractionread at the minute itself | 0.59× | 0.61× |
Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book imbalance and spread describe the best quotes; depth cost and pull describe recorded full-depth inputs where present; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.
Exact setup countedOrder book tilt -0.55 or lower and Liquidation bunching 0.67 or higher and The short descending resistance line is active 4h · 1 minute before the decision timePrinted conditions only; edit them before testing.
The selected move lasts 41 hours. This comparison measures 0.5 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.
Descriptive comparison only; it does not show that the setup works.
| Outcome | Matching setup | All eligible minutes | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished at least 2% higher | 9 / 65 (13.8%)0 unavailable | 1,180 / 42,169 (2.8%)1,032 unavailable | +11.0 pp |
| Finished at least 2% lower | 10 / 65 (15.4%)0 unavailable | 1,287 / 42,169 (3.1%)1,032 unavailable | +12.3 pp |
| Reached +5% at any point | 1 / 65 (1.5%)0 unavailable | 378 / 42,255 (0.9%)946 unavailable | +0.6 pp |
| Reached -5% at any point | 3 / 65 (4.6%)0 unavailable | 571 / 42,255 (1.4%)946 unavailable | +3.3 pp |
Reference: every eligible minute in the same market and dates, the matching minutes included. It is not a control group. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.
Sector and volume lists are unavailable. Retry or explicitly choose another population.
Starting defaults: 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-05 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
Choose the study population explicitly: This market only · All recorded crypto perpetuals
Read at 1 minute before the decision.
Of the 65 fires, 2 came before the move began and 37 happened while it was already under way. A fire during the move sees it; it does not telegraph it.
About 2.1 a day, on 4 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Read at 15 minutes before the decision.
1 rose and 1 fell over 2 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 2 fires, 1 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.1 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-28 alone holds 50% of them: this is close to a single episode.
Read at 1 hour before the decision.
0 rose and 1 fell over 1 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Its one fire came before the move began.
About 0 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-28 alone holds 100% of them: this is close to a single episode.
| 0.29 |
| 0.30 |
| 0.31 |
| 0.31 |
| 0.35 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursmeasured over the trailing four hours | -0.17 | -0.03 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.06 |
|---|
| Net taker flow over the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | -0.05 | -0.17 | -0.04 | +0.03 | -0.13 |
|---|
| Price impact per dollar tradedmeasured over the trailing hour | 0.579 per $1M | 0.437 per $1M | 0.427 per $1M | 0.434 per $1M | 0.342 per $1M |
|---|
| large-trade share of recent flowmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
|---|
| persistence of taker flow over the hourmeasured over the trailing hour | -0.08 | -0.07 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +0.10 |
|---|
| taker-buy share of recent flowmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes · Highlight: ≤ 0.35 or ≥ 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.31 |
|---|
| VPIN regimeread at the minute itself | normal | normal | normal | normal | normal |
|---|
| Turnover against its recent hoursmeasured over the trailing hour | 0.32× | 0.80× | 0.81× | 0.60× | 1.05× |
|---|
| Volume against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 32nd pctl | 34th pctl | 30th pctl | 35th pctl | 85th pctl |
|---|
| 120 |
| 360 |
| 180 |
| 135 |
| 121 |
| Open interest against the circulating floatread at the minute itself | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
|---|
| Premium index change over 1hchange in the venue's published premium index over the hour | +0.1127% | +0.0000% | +0.0095% | +0.0000% | +0.0000% |
|---|
| Premium index rank over 30dthe venue's published premium index against its own 30 days | 85th pctl | 22nd pctl | 47th pctl | 22nd pctl | 22nd pctl |
|---|
| Published premium indexthe venue's published premium index at that minute | +0.1127% | +0.0000% | +0.0095% | +0.0000% | +0.0000% |
|---|
| funding ratethe venue value last published before that minute | +0.0050% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% |
|---|
| global long ratiothe venue value last published before that minute | 65.8% | 64.0% | 64.2% | 64.3% | 64.3% |
|---|
| hourly change in open contractsmeasured over the trailing hour | -0.10% | -0.03% | -0.16% | +0.29% | -0.10% |
|---|
| long share of top-trader positionsthe venue value last published before that minute | 55.3% | 54.2% | 54.1% | 54.1% | 54.1% |
|---|
| normalized funding ratethe venue value last published before that minute | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
|---|
| open-interest velocity rankread at the minute itself | 22nd pctl | 19th pctl | 25th pctl | 73rd pctl | 78th pctl |
|---|
| Top-position long share minus global-account long sharethe venue value last published before that minute | -10.6 PTS | -9.9 PTS | -10.1 PTS | -10.2 PTS | -10.3 PTS |
|---|
| $307 |
| $0 |
| $0 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | 2.70% | 1.44% | 1.32% | 0.54% | 0.78% |
|---|
| distance down to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | 4.62% | 1.50% | 1.62% | 0.36% | 0.78% |
|---|
| distance up to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | 0.60% | 1.92% | 1.68% | 2.94% | 1.80% |
|---|
| distance up to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | 2.22% | 3.84% | 3.12% | 4.02% | 4.80% |
|---|
| liquidation burst against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 47th pctl | 46th pctl | 46th pctl | 46th pctl | 45th pctl |
|---|
| Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onmeasured over the trailing hour | -1.00 | -1.00 | +0.96 | Unavailable | -1.00 |
|---|
| 382 bps |
| 401 bps |
| 354 bps |
| 387 bps |
| 383 bps |
| depth capture regimestamped once for the whole symbol-day from the capture era | live | live | live | live | live |
|---|
| normalized spreadread at the minute itself | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.33 | 0.16 |
|---|
| order-book imbalance rankread at the minute itself | 83rd pctl | 92nd pctl | 39th pctl | 29th pctl | 69th pctl |
|---|
| quoted spread in basis pointsread at the minute itself | 6.89 bps | 7.95 bps | 8.13 bps | 16.5 bps | 8.24 bps |
|---|
| sharpest pull of resting asks in the minuteread at the minute itself | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
|---|
| sharpest pull of resting bids in the minuteread at the minute itself | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
|---|
| What takers paid to cross over 15 minutesmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | 13.5 bps | 11.6 bps | 11.7 bps | 16.5 bps | 20.1 bps |
|---|
| 0.64× |
| 0.64× |
| 0.64× |
| Distance to broken resistanceread at the minute itself | +0.21× | +3.18× | +3.61× | +3.87× | +3.86× |
|---|
| Distance to resistanceread at the minute itself | +0.83× | +3.84× | +4.12× | +4.38× | +4.37× |
|---|
| Resistance line stateread at the minute itself · Highlight: State other than none or normal | active_4h | active_4h | active_4h | active_4h | active_4h |
|---|
| Support shaperead at the minute itself · Highlight: State other than none or normal | flat | flat | flat | flat | flat |
|---|