Checking readings…
A decision time that has not been read recently can take several seconds.
A decision time that has not been read recently can take several seconds.
From the selected start to end, not the return from the decision time.
Close-to-close change before the decision.
Positioning cannot be assessed here.
Exchange-reported forced trades; feed coverage is limited.
Use this minute to form a question about similar conditions. The later move is known in hindsight; these readings alone do not explain its cause or show that it was predictable.
Matching means meeting every displayed threshold or range, not repeating the exact readings. For example, return ≤ −0.15% includes −0.30%, but excludes −0.10%. Category conditions require the same category.
6 of 7 key readings recorded. Hover a reading name or tap its info icon for a definition.
Unavailable, not zero: Open interest change (1h).
The automatic start is the last covered hourly candle touching the bottom 5% of the episode range (top 5% for a fall), measured using the eventual extreme. It is a hindsight anchor, not a detected causal onset. Change the start above to inspect a later acceleration. The end marks the hour containing the price extreme, not an exact tick. The feature manifest spans the lead-up. Individual minutes or inputs can still be unavailable.
No saved copy yet: one can be made only after the record covers 2026-10-04 20:00 UTC.
The earlier snapshots are still being read.
Reads 13 sampled minutes from the selected start to one hour after the end, with extra samples in the peak hour: separate snapshots, not a continuous tape or an advance-warning test.
No additional reads have run.
Historical access applies. Missing values stay unavailable; liquidations are Binance publications, not venue totals; the OI score is an absolute USD change, not signed contract growth.
Still counting. The comparison appears here when it finishes.
Free replay covers BTCUSDT on Binance Futures, the past 3 days. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches available recorded replay history. Access is checked when you open a replay.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.
From the selected start to end, not the return from the decision time.
Close-to-close change before the decision.
Positioning cannot be assessed here.
Exchange-reported forced trades; feed coverage is limited.
Use this minute to form a question about similar conditions. The later move is known in hindsight; these readings alone do not explain its cause or show that it was predictable.
Lower wick · 15m ≥ 0.63 AND Cascade clustering ≥ 0.69
Matching means meeting every displayed threshold or range, not repeating the exact readings. For example, return ≤ −0.15% includes −0.30%, but excludes −0.10%. Category conditions require the same category.
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
2026-09-05 to 2026-10-05 UTC. Recorded membership at this dataset revision, not a claim of historical membership.
No resolved roster.
The conditions were selected while investigating this move. This is exploratory evidence, not an independent validation.
The comparison measures: Price at least 2% higher after 30 minutes. It does not test a repeat of the entire selected rise.
Do not carry these readings forward as an explanation for the whole move. Inspect what changed later, then state a new question before testing it.
A rare reading and a useful predictor are different questions. No uniqueness or causal mechanism is established by this comparison.
Picked after the rise, on one market; all matches came within 6 days.
Free replay covers BTCUSDT on Binance Futures, the past 3 days. Pro reaches 90 days; Research reaches available recorded replay history. Access is checked when you open a replay.
No account? Replay a real move tick by tick, free: TUT short squeeze · 9 Aug 2026.
Five separate snapshots before the decision, not a continuous tape. Green above zero, red below; unavailable is never zero.
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Distance from VWAPread at the minute itself | -0.70% | -1.73% | -1.44% | -1.08% | -0.93% |
| Spot/perpetual close basisfrom matching closed one-minute perpetual and spot bars | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| realized-volatility rankmeasured over the trailing hour | 59th pctl | 52nd pctl | 30th pctl | 36th pctl | 46th pctl |
| share of the hour's variance that came from jumpsmeasured over the trailing hour | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| trailing 15-minute returnmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | +0.05% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.11% | +0.13% |
| trailing one-hour rangemeasured over the trailing hour | 1.15% | 2.17% | 0.72% | 0.72% | 0.88% |
| trailing one-hour returnmeasured over the trailing hour | +0.34% | -1.81% | -0.16% | +0.19% | +0.37% |
| Trailing one-hour realized volatilitymeasured over the trailing hour | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.12% |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar volume over 15 minutesmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | $6K | $12K | $4K | $9K | $10K |
| Flow toxicity against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Illiquidity against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 29th pctl | 6th pctl | 97th pctl | 66th pctl | 62nd pctl |
| Informed-trading pressure |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funding against this market's own settled historythe venue value last published before that minute | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Funding minus premium indexlatest funding minus the published premium index | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| How much of the hour's volume became new positionsmeasured over the trailing hour | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cascade clusteringread at the minute itself · Highlight: ≥ 0.50 | Unavailable | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Liquidation intensityread at the minute itself | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Liquidations in the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Longs liquidated in the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Shorts liquidated in the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | $0 | $0 |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Order-book imbalanceread at the minute itself | 91% ASK | 68% ASK | 61% BID | 91% ASK | 62% BID |
| book capture regimestamped once for the whole symbol-day from the capture era | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| cost of buying 100k from the bookread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| cost of selling 100k into the book |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last 15-minute candle range versus its baselinefrom the last completed 15-minute candle | 0.49× | 0.59× | 0.71× | 1.06× | 1.06× |
| last four-hour candle range versus its baselinefrom the last completed four-hour candle | Unavailable | 1.18× | 1.18× | 1.18× | 1.18× |
| last one-hour candle range versus its baselinefrom the last completed one-hour candle | 0.90× | 1.46× | 0.51× | 0.51× | 0.51× |
| Reading | -24h | -4h | -1h | -15m | -1m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time since resistance breakread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance line spanread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Resistance touchesread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Touches before resistance breakread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Line ATR contractionread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Highlighted cells meet the printed fixed rule. This does not establish rarity, statistical significance or a cause of the move. Book imbalance and spread describe the best quotes; depth cost and pull describe recorded full-depth inputs where present; liquidation readings describe what the venue reported.
Exact setup countedLower wick (15m) 63.0% or higher and Liquidation bunching 0.69 or higher · 1 minute before the decision timePrinted conditions only; edit them before testing.
The selected move lasts 8 hours. This comparison measures 0.5 hours after each historical match. Changing it uses the existing result.
Descriptive comparison only; it does not show that the setup works.
| Outcome | Matching setup | All eligible minutes | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished at least 2% higher | 0 / 31 (0.0%)0 unavailable | 756 / 42,083 (1.8%)1,118 unavailable | -1.8 pp |
| Finished at least 2% lower | 1 / 31 (3.2%)0 unavailable | 619 / 42,083 (1.5%)1,118 unavailable | +1.8 pp |
| Reached +5% at any point | 0 / 31 (0.0%)0 unavailable | 189 / 42,196 (0.4%)1,005 unavailable | -0.4 pp |
| Reached -5% at any point | 1 / 31 (3.2%)0 unavailable | 258 / 42,196 (0.6%)1,005 unavailable | +2.6 pp |
Reference: every eligible minute in the same market and dates, the matching minutes included. It is not a control group. The 30-window reporting floor is not a significance test. Overlapping windows and shared market events can reduce independent evidence. Conditions were selected after seeing this move; confirmation needs unseen data.
Multiple recorded sectors: sector_alpha, sector_crypto. Choose one explicitly.
Starting defaults: 2026-09-05 to 2026-10-05 UTC; finishes up 2% or more after 1 hour. Review or change the markets, dates, conditions and outcome before running. Current recorded classification and sector tags, not point-in-time membership. Historical membership may differ. Instrument history does not guarantee every setup input or outcome is present; actual study exclusions remain authoritative.
Choose the study population explicitly: This market only · All recorded crypto perpetuals
Read at 1 minute before the decision.
Of the 31 fires, 31 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 1 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
This is not a similarity search. Each count matches the exact readings above and nothing else.
Picked in hindsight: the counts include every other time these readings appeared, not just this move.
Fires often arrive as clusters of consecutive minutes, and forward windows overlap. A cluster is one episode, not many independent trials.
If these counts read weaker than the move suggested, that is the tool working: the lead-up of a picked move always looks special until it is counted everywhere else.
Read at 15 minutes before the decision.
8 rose and 13 fell over 21 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 21 fires, 21 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.7 a day, on 6 of 31 days: spread through the record rather than one event.
Read at 1 hour before the decision.
4 rose and 3 fell over 7 complete 30m windows. Too few completed windows for a directional generalization. No horizon cleared the floor of 30 complete windows on both the setup and the reference, so no lift is claimed.
Of the 7 fires, 7 came before the move began; none were during it.
About 0.2 a day over 31 days, but 2026-09-30 alone holds 43% of them: this is close to a single episode.
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| 0.38 |
| 0.37 |
| Net taker flow over the trailing four hoursmeasured over the trailing four hours | -0.03 | -0.04 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.04 |
|---|
| Net taker flow over the trailing hourmeasured over the trailing hour | +0.29 | -0.17 | -0.22 | -0.13 | -0.06 |
|---|
| Price impact per dollar tradedmeasured over the trailing hour | 0.789 per $1M | 0.543 per $1M | 2.23 per $1M | 1.5 per $1M | 1.44 per $1M |
|---|
| large-trade share of recent flowmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
|---|
| persistence of taker flow over the hourmeasured over the trailing hour | -0.03 | +0.17 | -0.01 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
|---|
| taker-buy share of recent flowmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | 0.53 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
|---|
| VPIN regimeread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | normal | normal |
|---|
| Turnover against its recent hoursmeasured over the trailing hour | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Volume against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 17th pctl | 42nd pctl | 25th pctl | 40th pctl | 40th pctl |
|---|
| 240 |
| 0 |
| 300 |
| 255 |
| 241 |
| Open interest against the circulating floatread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Premium index change over 1hchange in the venue's published premium index over the hour | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Premium index rank over 30dthe venue's published premium index against its own 30 days | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Published premium indexthe venue's published premium index at that minute | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| funding ratethe venue value last published before that minute | +0.0050% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% | +0.0050% |
|---|
| global long ratiothe venue value last published before that minute | 81.7% | 81.3% | 81.0% | 81.1% | 81.2% |
|---|
| hourly change in open contractsmeasured over the trailing hour | Unavailable | -0.42% | Unavailable | +0.12% | Unavailable |
|---|
| long share of top-trader positionsthe venue value last published before that minute | 52.6% | 50.8% | 50.9% | 50.9% | 50.8% |
|---|
| normalized funding ratethe venue value last published before that minute | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
|---|
| open-interest velocity rankread at the minute itself | 15th pctl | 31st pctl | 40th pctl | 46th pctl | 18th pctl |
|---|
| Top-position long share minus global-account long sharethe venue value last published before that minute | -29.1 PTS | -30.4 PTS | -30.1 PTS | -30.2 PTS | -30.3 PTS |
|---|
| $0 |
| $0 |
| $0 |
| distance down to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| distance down to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| distance up to the nearest bright 50x to 100x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| distance up to the nearest bright 5x to 25x liquidation shelfread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| liquidation burst against this market's own historyread at the minute itself | 48th pctl | 49th pctl | 49th pctl | 49th pctl | 49th pctl |
|---|
| Which side the trailing hour of liquidations fell onmeasured over the trailing hour | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| depth capture regimestamped once for the whole symbol-day from the capture era | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| normalized spreadread at the minute itself | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
|---|
| order-book imbalance rankread at the minute itself | 95th pctl | 36th pctl | 94th pctl | 85th pctl | 23rd pctl |
|---|
| quoted spread in basis pointsread at the minute itself | 2.61 bps | 8.02 bps | 13.4 bps | 2.67 bps | 8.00 bps |
|---|
| sharpest pull of resting asks in the minuteread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| sharpest pull of resting bids in the minuteread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| What takers paid to cross over 15 minutesmeasured over the trailing 15 minutes | 7.49 bps | 12.0 bps | 9.04 bps | 25.8 bps | 11.7 bps |
|---|
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| Unavailable |
| Resistance line stateread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Distance to broken resistanceread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Distance to resistanceread at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|
| Support shaperead at the minute itself | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
|---|